Strange stock market developments before the upgrade period: Which indicators reveal the results?

The focus of the stock market will be the upgrade information that FTSE Russell is expected to announce on October 7, so the performance of the stock group will be an early indicator for investors to monitor.

The stock market is less excited as it approaches the 1,700 mark - Photo: QUANG DINH

Stock market rally slows down

The focus of market attention will be the assessment results announced by FTSE Russell - an international organization specializing in classifying and ranking stock markets - on October 7.

However, Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Director of Research at MB Securities (MBS) - pointed out that the domestic market has some notable signals such as the slowing growth of the VN-Index as it approaches 1,700 points.

In the 37-point increase in the last week of August, half of the points came from the Vingroup group (VIC, VHM) contributing nearly 10 points, and VCB (nearly 8 points).

Strong net selling by foreign investors is holding back the index's growth. 2024 is considered a record year of net selling by foreign investors (about -92,000 billion VND), but there has never been a month with net selling as strong as last August with -42,700 billion VND, MBS experts said.

In addition, market liquidity has shown signs of peaking at VND62,000 billion, but decreased by 27% in the last week of August.

Regarding stock groups, except for the securities group that still attracted cash flow and increased by 5% compared to the previous week, the rest decreased, including some stock groups with a decrease of over 50%.

Currently, capital flows are mainly concentrated in banking stocks (30%) and securities 24% (the highest level since the beginning of the year).

"The focus of the market will be the upgrade information that FTSE Russell is expected to announce on October 7, so the securities group will be an early indicator," Ms. Hien commented.

Specifically, according to the research director of MBS, currently prominent stocks such as SSI, VND, SHS are higher than the VN-Index at the threshold of 1,700 points. Therefore, the performance of the stock group in the first 2 weeks of September could be an early indicator of whether the market will be upgraded in early October.

Meanwhile, the analysis block of Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) still gives a positive scenario at 1,854 points in the last 4 months of 2025 with the expectation of upgrading the market along with a series of drastic policies to boost growth.

Strategies to avoid "hallucinations"

Technically, MBS analysts said September was one of the three worst performing months of the year, with US stocks also performing seasonally.

Besides, except for the group of securities stocks that have surpassed their peak, the leading or capitalized stock groups have all peaked and are fluctuating in the re-accumulation zone before the VN-Index.

Therefore, in the most positive scenario, most stocks will have to retest their peaks before forming an extended uptrend, MBS experts predict.

In the base scenario, MBS believes that the market will form a re-accumulation zone around the 1,700 point threshold. In the conservative scenario, the support levels for the market are in the 1,615 - 1,625 point area. While new peaks are in the 1,690 - 1,694 point area.

Regarding trading strategies, MBS experts recommend bringing the stock/cash ratio to a balanced level. In the current context, it is advisable to focus on specific stocks, instead of referring to the general index which can easily cause "illusion".

Although the VN-Index is approaching the 1,700-point threshold, some stocks have fallen 15-20% from their peak. This group of stocks will likely have a support zone before the general index.

Because capital is mainly concentrated in the securities and banking groups, these will be the signal stocks for the market this week.

Securities companies still expect the possibility of being upgraded.

Analyst Nien Nguyen - Shinhan Securities - said that the securities group recorded record profits thanks to the excitement of the market.

The average monthly transaction value in 2025 has increased sharply, surpassing the peak of the 2021-2022 period. In July 2025 alone, the average transaction value reached 35,100 billion VND per session. In August 2025, this number continued to set a new record with 51,600 billion VND per session.

The prospect of upgrading Vietnam's stock market along with economic growth is becoming a strong attraction for investment capital, according to expert Nien Nguyen.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/dien-bien-la-cua-chung-khoan-truoc-ky-nang-hang-chi-bao-nao-he-lo-ket-qua-20250904103310653.htm