World gold prices cool down after signals from the US

World gold prices fell 1.8% last week after newly released inflation data reduced the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates, while the market turned its attention to negotiations between US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Gold jewelry is displayed for sale at a jewelry store in Istanbul, Türkiye.

Data released on August 14 showed that US producer prices (PPI) rose the most in three years in July 2025. Traders see an 89.1% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in September, down from about 95% before the data was released. Non-yielding gold prices fell after the data was released, with spot gold closing down 0.6%. Gold prices typically rise in a lower interest rate environment, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

The fall in gold prices due to the stronger-than-expected PPI data will also contribute to a higher reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditure index, in July 2025, potentially making the Fed cautious about rate cuts, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on August 13 made his strongest call yet, asking the Fed to implement a cycle of deep interest rate cuts, with a total reduction of at least 1.50 percentage points compared to the current level. He said this move should begin as early as September 2025, with a 0.5 percentage point interest rate cut.

The rate cut that Mr. Bessent proposed is much higher than the market forecast. A 1.50 percentage point cut would take the Fed's operating rate to about 2.88%, while the market forecasts interest rates at 3% in September or October next year.

Meanwhile, more than 50% of US industries reported job cuts in July 2025, a worrying development and a sign of economic recessions throughout history.

The US jobs report for July painted a worrying picture: the economy added just 73,000 jobs, far below expectations. More alarmingly, May and June employment figures were revised down by a combined 258,000, suggesting that the strength of the labor market had been overestimated. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month to 62.2%.

According to Fortune magazine, the health care sector is the only major industry still adding jobs—a notable warning sign. Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi described it as a "significant" warning sign that often appears in the early stages of recessions.

Signs of strain are also evident in unemployment figures. Nearly two million Americans are now receiving unemployment aid — the highest number since late 2021 — suggesting more job seekers are having trouble finding new work.

JPMorgan notes that a drop in demand on this scale is a recession warning sign. Companies typically maintain hiring during what they perceive as a temporary slowdown in economic growth. But when demand falls alongside a slowdown in growth, this often signals a major layoff.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump traveled to Alaska for a summit on August 15 with Mr. Putin to discuss a ceasefire agreement for Ukraine.

After meeting with President Trump, President Putin noted positive moves in trade and expressed confidence in the huge potential of bilateral partnership in the fields of trade, energy, digital technology , space and the Arctic, calling for "turning a new page" and returning to cooperation.

For his part, US President Donald Trump confirmed reaching many agreements with Mr. Putin and said that "first and foremost, perhaps we have a very good chance of reaching a peaceful solution" even though a peaceful solution cannot be declared.

Political scientist Pavel Danilin believes that the Alaska meeting was quite effective, but its effectiveness was different from the expectations of most observers. According to him, the volume of problems accumulated in Russia-US relations is very large. And the effectiveness of the meeting is the agreements reached on some of these issues, information will be made public in the coming days.

The head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, an important member of the Russian negotiating delegation, Kirill Dmitriev, assessed that "the dialogue was very positive and constructive... many issues were resolved. Some issues still need to be resolved."

Analysts at ANZ bank said they expect macroeconomic and geopolitical risks to increase in the second half of the year, increasing gold's appeal as a safe haven. Geopolitical uncertainty and low interest rates generally boost demand for gold.

Spot gold prices were almost unchanged on August 15 at $3,336.66 an ounce. Earlier, gold prices fell on August 14 as higher-than-expected inflation data and lower jobless claims in the US lowered the likelihood of a sharp rate cut by the Fed in September 2025, pushing the US dollar and government bond yields higher. Spot gold prices fell 0.5% to $3,337.21 an ounce, while gold futures for December 2025 closed down 0.7% at $3,383.2 an ounce.

Gold prices also fell in the first trading session of the week on August 11, after the US President announced that he would not impose import tax on gold bullion, as investors awaited the US inflation report, which could reveal the Fed's interest rate orientation. Gold prices for December 2025 delivery fell 2.5%, closing at $3,404.70/ounce. Meanwhile, spot gold prices fell 1.2%, to $3,358.33/ounce.

Gold prices then rose slightly on August 12 after US inflation data increased the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. Gold prices also rose on August 13 due to a weaker US dollar and falling US government bond yields.

If gold breaks through recent resistance around $3,400 an ounce, the upside momentum could come more from geopolitical developments than economic data, said market analyst Fawad Razaqzada of financial services firm City Index and FOREX.com.

baotintuc.vn

Source: https://baolaocai.vn/gia-vang-the-gioi-ha-nhiet-sau-tin-hieu-tu-my-post879734.html