Gold prices have not bottomed yet, stimulating investors to buy at low prices or still being turned away?

Gold prices fell from around $2,000 an ounce to below $1,900 an ounce on July 1, as a series of data this week painted a picture of a strong U.S. economy and bet on further policy tightening. Has the sharp drop in gold prices spurred investor buying?

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 7/1 AND EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 7/1

1. SJC - Updated: June 30, 2023 14:01 - Website supply time - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell out
SJC 1L, 10L	66,350	66,950
SJC 5c	66,350	66,970
SJC 2c, 1C, 5 phan	66,350	66,980
SJC 99.99 gold ring 1 chi, 2 chi, 5 chi	55,100	56,100
SJC 99.99 gold ring 0.5 chi	55,100	56,200
99.99% Jewelry	55,000	55,700
99% Jewelry	53,949	55,149
Jewelry 68%	36,030	38,030
Jewelry 41.7%	21,379	23,379

Gold prices suffered their worst month since February, hitting a more than three-month low, on track for their first quarterly decline in three quarters, following a series of strong US economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Most policymakers and the Fed chairman have said interest rates will need to be raised at least twice more by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, a series of the latest US economic and social indicators show that the country is very likely to avoid a recession. The market has now completely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut for 2023.

Higher interest rates put pressure on gold because they tend to lift bond yields and thus increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

According to TG&VN at 9:30 p.m. on June 30 (Vietnam time) on Kitco, the gold price was trading at 1,916.90 - 1,916.90 USD/ounce, up 8.8 USD compared to the previous session, after many consecutive sessions of decline . The August gold futures price was last traded at 1,916 USD/ounce, down 0.10% on the day.

Gold price today July 1, 2023: Gold price has not yet bottomed out, stimulating investors to buy at low prices or still being turned away? (Source: Reuters)

With inflation still a concern and central banks signaling further rate hikes, gold is losing some of its appeal as the opportunity cost of holding the metal increases, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. The prospect of higher interest rates has weighed on gold. A stronger dollar has turned foreign investors away from gold.

Domestic gold prices slightly decreased again in the range of 80,000 - 130,000 VND/tael at some trading systems. Two major brands with price changes are Saigon Jewelry adjusted SJC gold price down 100,000 VND/tael for both buying and selling; Bao Tin Minh Chau system reduced 130,000 VND/tael for buying and 80,000 VND/tael for selling.

The price of jewelry gold has decreased more than SJC gold bars. The price of gold rings has decreased to nearly 56 million VND/tael for sale. From the first session of the week (June 26) until today, the price of SJC jewelry gold has decreased by a total of 400 thousand VND/tael for both buying and selling. However, the price of Doji jewelry gold has "evaporated" 300 thousand VND/tael for buying and decreased 250 thousand VND/tael for selling.

World gold converted to billions of USD at Vietcombank is priced at over 54.5 million VND/tael (excluding taxes and fees). SJC gold price is still about 12.47 million VND/tael higher than the international gold price.

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of the trading session on June 30:

Saigon Jewelry Company listed SJC gold price at 66.35 - 66.97 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists SJC gold price at: 66.40 - 67.00 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed at: 66.45 - 67.05 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.45 - 66.95 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.37 - 66.95 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 55.43 - 56.28 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 54.90 - 56.005 million VND/tael.

Gold price forecast may fall to near $1,850 ?

The gold market remains on the defensive, struggling to find direction, trying to push into "neutral territory" as inflationary pressures continue to rise as expected. However, looking at the broader trend, inflation remains high, more than double the Fed's 2% target. Along with that, when GDP growth is good, it will help the economy reduce risks. This information will encourage investors to "turn away" and limit their holdings of gold.

Interest rates could stay higher for longer than the market expects, said Harshal Barot, senior adviser at Metals Focus . Gold prices are expected to fall to near $1,850 an ounce this year.

The world's precious metals continue to face selling pressure as recession fears ease. The resilience of the US economy is forcing markets to reassess the outlook for monetary policy for the rest of the year, which, according to leading precious metals research consultancy Metals Focus, will have a negative impact on the precious metal.

In the current macro environment, the likelihood of a full-blown recession is very small. This could be difficult for gold in the short term, with the risk of prices falling below $1,900/ounce.

Technically, gold could fall to $1,730 an ounce, down about 10% from current levels. However, Metals Focus forecasts an average annual price of $1,890 an ounce for 2023. The firm also points to geopolitical risks and strong central bank demand as factors limiting the sell-off.

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