Global economy "overcomes" tariff wave

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Global growth this year is forecast at 3.2%, only slightly down from last year and 0.3% higher than the OECD forecast in June.

Specifically, the US economy is forecast to grow 1.8% this year thanks to a wave of investment in AI and fiscal policy. China's growth is forecast to reach 4.9%, while the Eurozone is 1.2% and Japan is 1.1%.

However, the OECD also warned that the full impact of the tariff hikes has yet to fully emerge and is forecast to drag global growth down to 2.9% next year, with major economies all forecast to slow.

According to the OECD, the labor market in many countries shows signs of weakening with rising unemployment rates and decreasing job opportunities, while the process of reducing inflation is slowing down.

Overall inflation in the G20 economies is expected to reach 3.4% in 2025, slightly lower than the 3.6% forecast in June. Inflation expectations in the US were revised down more sharply. The OECD forecasts consumer prices in the world's largest economy to rise 2.7% in 2025, down from the previous forecast of 3.2%.

According to the OECD, rising inflationary pressures and President Donald Trump's further tariff moves targeting sectors such as chips, pharmaceuticals, furniture, etc. are two major risks to global growth in the coming time.

The high valuations and volatility of crypto-assets also pose risks to global financial stability due to their increasing interconnectedness with the traditional financial system, the OECD noted.

Amid slowing growth, the OECD expects most major central banks to lower borrowing costs or maintain policy easing next year as long as inflation pressures continue to ease.

Source: https://vtv.vn/kinh-te-toan-cau-vuot-song-thue-quan-100250925151005485.htm