Vietnam Economy: Impressive Growth, Inflation Under Control

In the first 8 months of 2025, Vietnam's economy in 2025 continues to grow strongly, with GDP growth in 2025 breaking through thanks to consumption and investment. Inflation in 2025 remains under control, but challenges from the USD/VND exchange rate, increased production costs and slowing Vietnamese exports are creating great pressure on macroeconomic management in the last months of the year.

The economy recovered strongly

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Dao Tung, Director of the Academy of Finance, commented that Vietnam's economy in 2025 has escaped the short-term recovery trajectory and entered a clear growth phase since the second quarter of 2024. The growth momentum continues into 2025 with positive results: GDP in the second quarter of 2025 reached 7.96%, bringing the 6-month growth rate to 7.52%, the highest in more than a decade.

Mr. Tung analyzed that, unlike the previous period which relied heavily on exports, the current growth drivers mainly come from domestic consumption, reaching an increase of 7.95%, and investment, increasing by 7.98%. In addition, fiscal policies, tax exemptions and reductions, promoting public investment disbursement, along with loose monetary policies to lower interest rates, expand credit, and flexibly manage the USD/VND exchange rate have created a foothold for businesses.

The economy recovers strongly. (Photo: VOV)

Another notable sign is the marked improvement in business confidence. In just the first eight months of 2025, more than 128,200 new Vietnamese enterprises were registered nationwide, up 15.7% over the same period last year. This number has led to a boom in the labor market, with about 538,000 new jobs created.

In addition to growth, macroeconomic stability was also maintained. Core inflation in August increased by 0.19% compared to the previous month and by 3.25% compared to the same period last year. On average, core inflation increased by 3.19% over the same period last year in the first 8 months of 2025, lower than the 3.25% increase of the average CPI in 2025.

However, Mr. Tung noted that the global economy is showing signs of slowing down, especially due to trade tensions and tariff policies from the US, which could directly impact Vietnam's exports. Domestically, the rapid increase in money supply and exchange rates in the first half of the year also poses inflationary pressure in 2025, although the price of basic goods in the world is unlikely to increase sharply, which will partly help reduce the burden of production costs.

Inflation under control

In the first 8 months of the year, the average CPI in 2025 increased by 3.25% over the same period, still within the target range. Inflationary pressure mainly came from the group of medical services, housing, electricity, water, fuel, construction materials and the cost of eating out. However, the decrease in prices of basic goods in the world market helped Vietnam's import price index decrease by 1.57%, thereby easing the pressure on production costs.

Durian, a million-dollar export item. (Photo: VOV)

Dr. Nguyen Duc Do, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance, forecasts that the CPI in the second half of 2025 may increase by an average of 0.27% per month, bringing the whole year of 2025 to around 3.4%. In case of a sharp global economic recession, inflation in 2025 may only be around 3%. However, he emphasized that the USD/VND exchange rate is an unpredictable variable. Although the USD tends to weaken in the international market, the USD/VND exchange rate still increases due to the slowdown in Vietnam's exports, the difference in USD-VND interest rates and the pressure of trade deficit. With the target of 16% credit growth and maintaining low interest rates to support 8% GDP growth in 2025, money supply may increase rapidly, creating pressure on domestic prices.

On the other hand, Vietnam’s export difficulties have led to a surplus of domestic goods, helping to curb price increases. “This paradox shows that growth difficulties have become a factor that helps reduce the risk of inflationary explosions,” Mr. Do analyzed.

The representative of the Price Management Department (Ministry of Finance) also said that price management in the coming time needs to be flexible and closely coordinated between fiscal and monetary policies. In addition, the roadmap for adjusting public service prices according to market mechanisms must still be implemented but must be cautious, in line with CPI developments in 2025 to avoid creating price shocks.

Economist Associate Professor Dr. Ngo Tri Long forecasts that inflation in 2025 will fluctuate between 4 and 4.5%, which is still a safe level compared to the unstable global context. He suggested that the Government focus on stabilizing the USD/VND exchange rate and gasoline prices, tightly controlling production costs, and accelerating the disbursement of public investment. Information transparency and policy communication are also very important. When the economy maintains high GDP growth momentum in 2025 while inflation in 2025 is controlled, Vietnam will create a solid foundation to move to the next stage of development.

According to VOV

Source: https://thoidai.com.vn/kinh-te-viet-nam-tang-truong-an-tuong-lam-phat-trong-tam-kiem-soat-216369.html