Computer predicts Man Utd has 0.09% chance of winning Premier League

After the first four rounds of the Premier League, the Opta statistics company's computer simultaneously lowered Man Utd's odds of winning the championship and entering the top 4.

Before the start of the 2023-2024 season, Opta's AI computer declared Man Utd had a 63.2% chance of finishing in the Premier League's top four. However, after just four games, the re-evaluation results show that the "Red Devils" only have a 28.42% chance, down nearly 35%. Before the season, Man Utd also had a 1.7% chance of winning the title. But according to current figures, they only have a 0.09% chance.

Man Utd have had a difficult start to the season. Two wins at Old Trafford against Wolves 1-0 and Nottingham Forest 3-2 were mixed with two defeats at Tottenham 0-2 and Arsenal 1-3. Man Utd are currently ranked 11th in the 20-team Premier League.

Goalkeeper Andre Onana (in yellow shirt) conceded after Declan Rice's shot increased the score to 2-1, in the match between Arsenal and Man Utd on September 3. Photo: Reuters — Goalkeeper Andre Onana (in yellow shirt) conceded after Declan Rice's shot increased the score to 2-1, in the match between Arsenal and Man Utd on September 3. Photo: *Reuters*

In addition to the problems on the field, the "Red Devils" also have to deal with the personal problems of Mason Greenwood, Jadon Sancho and Antony. After escaping accusations of rape and assault on his girlfriend, in the face of opposition from feminist groups, Greenwood had to move to Getafe on loan. Sancho also has almost no future at Old Trafford, after publicly clashing with coach Erik Ten Hag over his training attitude, and Antony had to stop playing due to accusations of assaulting his ex-girlfriend.

While Man Utd's chances of finishing in the top four have been severely reduced, Tottenham's are predicted to improve. Before the season, the computer said Tottenham had a 9.5% chance. However, after the "Roosters" won 10 points from their first four games, the prediction increased to 31.86%. Tottenham fans may be happier to hear that the computer's prediction for their rivals Arsenal has slightly decreased. Before the season, the computer predicted Arsenal would finish second. However, after the first four games, the re-evaluation results show Liverpool will finish second, while Arsenal will finish third.

Liverpool started the season with three wins and a draw. Photo: PA

The computer also made negative predictions for Newcastle and Chelsea. After three defeats and just one win, the Magpies' chances of finishing in the top four dropped from 24.8% to 16.69%. Similarly, after two defeats, a draw and a win, Chelsea's chances of finishing in the top four dropped from 16% to 1.1%. The computer even predicted a 0.9% chance of Chelsea being relegated.

In contrast, Liverpool's chances of finishing in the top four increased from 76.8% to 91.1%, while West Ham's increased from 2% to 14.8%. After the first four rounds, both teams have three wins and one draw. They are in the top four with Man City and Tottenham.

Meanwhile, after three defeats and a draw, the computer predicts that second-to-last Everton have a 52.34% chance of relegation. Only Luton Town and Sheffield United, both promoted this season, are more likely to be relegated. Sheffield United have also lost three and drawn one, like Everton, while Luton Town have lost all three of their opening games and had one postponed.

Thanh Quy (according to Opta )

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