How far can the US lifeline help Ukraine?

The latest US aid package for Ukraine will not be enough to create a major turning point when Kiev faces numerous difficulties and weapons aid is not the solution for everything.

Gói viện trợ mới nhất của Mỹ cho Ukraine chỉ là “phao cứu sinh tạm thời”

Ukrainian soldiers receive a shipment of Javelin anti-tank missiles donated by the US. (Source: AP)

Ukraine is still "far from shore"

The Economist newspaper on April 24 said that "throwing a life jacket to a drowning person can eliminate the immediate danger. But if that person is still miles from shore and in cold water, he may still be in danger."

That’s how The Economist referred to Ukraine after US President Joe Biden signed a long-delayed bill on April 24 that would allocate $61 billion in financial and military assistance to help Ukraine counter Russia, as well as provide money to Israel and Taiwan (China).

If the aid is not approved, Ukraine will face the risk of losing more territory in a new offensive by Moscow, expected early next summer. While the $61 billion will help Ukraine survive, it is still “far from shore.”

The good news for Ukraine is that the latest US aid package will soon be deployed to the front lines. Since money began to run out in the fall, shortages of key supplies, especially artillery shells, have become more acute than ever.

Russia has five times more artillery firepower than Ukraine. With ammunition stockpiled at US bases in Poland, Ukraine’s firepower constraint will now be lifted. With the artillery in Ukraine’s hands, Russia will face more danger as it concentrates troops and tanks for new attacks. Delivering much-needed drones and interceptor missiles to Ukraine will take longer, but eventually Russia will no longer control the skies, especially on the front lines.

The worrying reality

However, according to the Economist , this good news is not enough to alleviate some worrying realities.

First , while the new aid package will strengthen Ukraine’s defenses, it will not be enough to help the country regain territory, which currently accounts for about 18 percent of Ukraine’s land area. The lessons of last summer’s failed counteroffensive were costly in terms of manpower and material.

Second , the battle in Congress to get the bill passed is a sign of trouble ahead. The $61 billion figure is roughly what the US spent on Ukraine in the first 20 months of the war, after which its funding dried up. So the new money could be spent by the end of 2025. Even if there is any left over, it is unlikely to be used if Donald Trump is elected President. If Biden remains President, the battle in Congress could recur again next year. The latest US aid package could be the last.

The West's goal, indeed, is a stable, secure, and prosperous Ukraine within defensible borders and moving toward membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

According to the Economist, the problems associated with supporting Ukraine within the US mean that European leaders realise that they will have to shoulder more responsibility to achieve this goal and will need a larger defence industry.

Although Europe is the largest financial and humanitarian donor to Ukraine, its spending on military aid is almost equal to that of the United States. Thanks to American aid, European leaders have more time to figure out how to help Ukraine win. The scale of the task means their work is no less urgent.

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