Mistakes cost Ukraine after defeat in Avdeevka

Ukraine had plenty of time to strengthen its defenses around Avdeevka, but focused only on counterattacks and neglected defense, causing them to suffer consecutive defeats.

After months of shelling the stronghold of Avdeevka in Donetsk province, Russia has taken full control of the city and continues to attack neighboring areas to the west. After withdrawing from Avdeevka, the Ukrainian army continues to abandon many surrounding villages, facing relentless enemy attacks.

The Russian military’s success after Avdeevka was partly attributed to Ukraine running low on ammunition as Western aid dwindled. However, another reason for the Russian advance was the weakness of Ukraine’s defenses in the area.

Ukrainian soldiers stand next to newly dug fortifications on the front line in December 2023. Photo: Reuters

Satellite images released recently by Planet Labs show sparse, rudimentary trenches built by the Ukrainian military in the area west of Avdeevka, where Ukrainian forces are holding out after withdrawing from the strategic city. These trenches lack obstacles that could slow the advance of Russian tanks or protect major roads and important positions.

After withdrawing from Avdeevka, Ukraine claimed to have built up a strong defense on the line on the western outskirts of the city. However, Russian forces have taken control of three more villages west of Avdeevka in just a week and are advancing on another.

Some US officials said they were concerned that Ukraine had not fortified its defenses sufficiently and in a timely manner, putting its forces at risk as Russian units from Avdeevka continued to push westward.

British military intelligence estimates that after capturing the center of Avdeevka, Russian forces have advanced about 6 kilometers westward in the past two weeks. This is not a long distance, but the Russian advance is "unusually rapid compared to previous attacks."

Over the past year, Ukrainian commanders have had plenty of time to prepare their defenses on the outskirts of Avdeevka. They had previously turned the town into a “fortress” in Donetsk province, but they had not focused on building defenses around it.

Ukrainian trenches outside the town of Avdeevka in Donetsk province. Photo: Planet Labs

The Ukrainian defense line outside Avdeevka consisted of rudimentary earthworks and simple trenches for infantry to move into firing positions, but nothing else.

This level of mediocrity is even more evident when compared with the Russian-built defense line, with its dense system of minefields, obstacles and fortifications, which helped them to prevent and then defeat the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Russian defenses outside the village of Verbovoe, Zaporizhzhia province, which Ukraine has failed to capture after months of offensives, show the huge difference between the two sides' lines.

Western tactics deadlocked before Russian defense line

The Russian defense line at Verbovoe consisted of several concentric layers surrounding the village, starting with a wide trench to prevent enemy tanks and armored vehicles from passing through.

Behind the anti-tank ditches, Russian forces erected “dragon teeth” barriers, pyramid-shaped concrete obstacles capable of blocking the passage of tanks. The final line of defense was a dense network of trenches for the infantry units defending Verbovoe.

These trenches were dug into many connected lines, allowing soldiers who lost the first line to quickly retreat to the rear line to consolidate their forces and continue fighting.

Russian defenses outside the village of Verbovoe. Photo: Planet Labs

There are several reasons why Ukraine has neglected to establish a defensive line on the battlefield over the past year. US officials and military experts say Ukraine may have been so focused on last year’s counteroffensive that it did not allocate the resources needed to dig anti-tank ditches and trenches, as Russian engineers have been doing since late 2022.

“Nobody was interested in building a defense line and nobody considered it an option because it would be very expensive,” said former Ukrainian army colonel Serhiy Hrabskyi. “Ukraine had very few resources at that time.”

Psychological factors may also be at play, US officials say. Heavy minelaying in some areas to slow Russia’s advance could be seen as a tacit admission that Ukraine will have difficulty countering in those areas.

Russia began building its southern defenses more than half a year before Ukraine launched its counteroffensive. Ukraine, meanwhile, appears to have begun building new fortifications only three months ago, when officials announced the creation of a task force to coordinate operations between the military and local authorities.

Ukrainian officials said at the time that the first line of defense would be built by Ukrainian military units stationed in the area. Subsequent defenses would be provided by local authorities and private contractors. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine had allocated about $800 million to strengthen the defenses this year.

During a visit to the front line in late November 2023, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the Donetsk region, including Avdeevka, "will receive maximum attention." Mr. Zelensky also affirmed that "it is necessary to strengthen and accelerate the construction of defense structures."

However, according to expert Pasi Paroinen, "nothing significant happened after Mr. Zelensky's visit." "Ukraine prepared a number of defensive positions outside Avdeevka, but they cannot form a solid defense line and cannot compare with the scale of the system set up by Russia," Paroinen said.

Russian forces used AZP S-60 anti-aircraft guns mounted on trucks to attack Ukrainian positions on February 16. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense

Ukrainian officials say they lack the manpower to build the front line. Ivano-Frankivsk officials announced in mid-January that they were recruiting 300 workers to help build fortifications in Donetsk province, about 800 km away.

"We lack engineering units. Even our engineers lack equipment," said former colonel Hrabskyi, who, along with Paroinen, said the Russian army has more equipment, construction materials, and engineers with more experience in setting up defense lines.

Ukrainian media recently reported on the poor state of the country’s defenses outside Avdeevka, a rare criticism of the Ukrainian military, according to some Western experts.

Delays in establishing defense lines mean the Ukrainian army now has to reinforce them while under attack by Russian forces, making the task much more difficult.

Russia is relentlessly shelling Ukraine's unfinished defense lines, even using high-explosive glide bombs containing hundreds of kilograms of explosives that can wipe out even sturdy fortifications.

"The quality of these Ukrainian defense systems is not good enough to cope with the large-scale destruction campaign of Russian forces," Mr. Hrabskyi admitted.

Nguyen Tien (According to BI, AFP, Reuters )

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