The future of the war in Ukraine after the fall of Avdeevka

Avdeevka could be a springboard for Russia to expand its attacks on a series of fortified Ukrainian strongholds, moving towards complete control of Donetsk province and many other cities.

Russian forces announced on February 17 that they had taken full control of Avdeevka, a strategic stronghold in Donetsk that they had been attacking since October 2023. This was the biggest victory the Russian army had achieved since taking control of the city of Bakhmut in May 2023.

This victory is expected to significantly boost Russia's morale, just ahead of the second anniversary of the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine on February 24. This could also be a turning point, contributing to changing the situation on the battlefield, in the context of the Ukrainian army increasingly depleted in terms of forces and equipment, having to switch to a defensive position across the front line.

Avdeevka was a town of more than 30,000 people before the fighting broke out, located only about 24 km from the capital of Donetsk, the Russian-controlled province of the same name. In 2014, Russian-backed separatists attacked Avdeevka and briefly controlled the city.

After the Ukrainian army recaptured the city, they turned Avdeevka into a fortress with many strong defenses to deal with the separatist forces. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, Avdeevka became one of the key targets that Moscow was determined to capture.

Moscow launched a massive offensive on Avdeevka late last year after Kiev’s massive counteroffensive failed. After more than three months of fighting, Avdeevka’s population has dwindled to just 1,000, most of whom live in underground tunnels, city officials say.

"Avdeevka is the most solid operational-strategic area prepared by Ukraine for long-term defense efforts in the Donbass region. The strongholds here have been continuously reinforced over the past 10 years, and Ukrainian leaders believe that Russia will suffer heavy losses in a prolonged offensive campaign," Russian analyst Kirill Strelnikov said on February 18.

The city is of great logistical and strategic value to Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry said the capture of Avdeevka would push the frontline further away from the city of Donetsk, making it harder for Ukrainian forces to launch raids and counterattacks to retake the area.

"The front line will shift 10-15 km to the west, Ukrainian units will also have to abandon a series of neighboring villages to avoid the risk of being surrounded. Russia can reconnect the key railway line between the city of Yasinovataya and the capital Donetsk, as well as build important support points on the Volnovakha - Donetsk - Debaltsevo route," Strelnikov said.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, admitted last week that Avdeevka is not only symbolic but also plays an important strategic role in the situation in Donetsk province. "The enemy will be able to create a logistics corridor to a large area on the front line," he said of the scenario after Russia captured the city.

The end of the battle for Avdeevka also freed up a large amount of troops and equipment for Russia to prepare for the next battles. Russian analysts believe that this city will become an important springboard for Russia to push its troops west of Donetsk province, because the Ukrainian army does not possess a defense line of similar size to the stronghold at Avdeevka.

Russian rocket artillery attacked a Ukrainian target in the Lyman direction on February 15. Photo: RIA Novosti

During a press conference at the Pentagon on February 16, a senior US defense official warned that a series of Ukrainian cities along the frontline could suffer the same fate as Avdeevka if the US Congress does not quickly approve more than $60 billion in aid for Kiev. "Without additional funding, Ukrainian soldiers in many areas will run out of ammunition and supplies," the person said.

There are many signs that Russia is taking advantage of the victory in Avdeevka to push forward other attacks, in the context of Ukrainian forces falling into chaos after a change of commander and facing the risk of exhausting weapons support from the West.

Ukrainian military spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy announced on the evening of February 18 that Russian units were attacking west of Avdeevka, focusing on the village of Lastochkyne, 2 km from the city, to gain more advantage.

Fierce fighting is also raging in the Lyman-Kupyansk direction, said Ivan Tymochko, chairman of the Ukrainian Army Reserve Council, two strategic transport cities in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions that Russian forces had to abandon after a lightning counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army in September 2022.

"Russia may have discovered a weakness in its enemy after capturing Avdeevka. The most elite units in the Ukrainian army are exhausted after two years of fighting and the country has just changed its army commander, while the forces on the front line are short of ammunition and are constantly being bombed with guided bombs," wrote writer Tim Lister on CNN .

Hotspots of fighting in the Donbass region and Kharkiv province. Graphics: RYV

Russian forces may also send some units from Avdeevka to reinforce the offensive on the outskirts of Maryinka, a key stronghold that Kiev had to abandon in December 2023. Ugledar, a key bastion of Ukraine’s defense southwest of Donetsk, is also under increasing pressure.

Moscow’s next target is likely to be the city of Chasov Yar, located on a hilltop west of Bakhmut. This is where Ukrainian brigades that reinforced Bakhmut early last year were assembled, potentially threatening the key Kiev-controlled cities of Kramatorsk and Konstantinovka.

Ukraine still controls nearly half of Donetsk province and is looking to build a new network of strongholds on the high ground north of Avdeevka to hold back the enemy. "Russian forces will likely consolidate their positions and not rush to attack this line, but they will still be able to take a number of villages on the outskirts of the city," Lister said.

Vu Anh (According to RIA Novosti, CNN )

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