The US Federal Reserve 's July policy meeting ended with the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. This was the fifth consecutive meeting where the Fed did not make any changes to the policy interest rate. However, this time, there was a split within the Fed when it voted 9-2 to maintain the interest rate. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted against, arguing that the Fed should start a cutting cycle as inflation has calmed down and the labor market has begun to cool.
Chairman Jerome Powell later said in a press conference that the Fed "has not made any decisions for September 2025" and will closely monitor new economic indicators to make appropriate policy moves. Currently, the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the proportion of investors betting on the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting has dropped sharply from more than 63% yesterday to 41.4%. Meanwhile, the possibility of the Fed continuing to keep interest rates unchanged is oversold.
In addition to monetary policy factors, the dollar is also supported by new trade agreements. The US has just reached a tariff agreement with South Korea, while imposing heavy tariffs on goods from Brazil and India. President Donald Trump also announced that he is reviewing trade agreements with Europe and China, increasing risk-off sentiment in global financial markets.
In the international market, the USD has rapidly increased in value. The DXY index, which measures the strength of the greenback, has been very close to the 100 mark at times and is currently trading around 99.8 points, the highest in nearly two months. In July, the DXY increased by nearly 3%, marking the first month of increase since the beginning of the year.
The central exchange rate announced by the State Bank continued to increase by 12 VND to 25,240 VND/USD. Compared to the end of June, the central exchange rate increased by 188 VND, equivalent to 0.75%.
Although the international USD increased sharply and the central exchange rate set a new record, it is noteworthy that the exchange rate at commercial banks not only did not increase but also decreased slightly. The selling rate at Vietcombank and BIDV decreased by 20 VND compared to yesterday, listed at 26,380 VND/USD; VietinBank decreased by 10 VND to the same level. Most private banks also adjusted the USD selling price to 26,380 VND/USD.
The currency market has also shown signs of cooling down in recent days. Data updated to July 29 shows that the average overnight interbank interest rate has dropped sharply to 4.33%/year, partly indicating that the pressure on system liquidity has eased. Other terms such as 1 week and 2 weeks have also decreased to around 4.7% and 4.9% respectively. However, the trading volume in the interbank market is still very active. At the overnight term, there were more than VND572,000 billion traded, accounting for more than 90% of the total liquidity in the interbank market.
In line with the exchange rate, domestic gold prices also fell significantly following international gold prices due to the strong recovery of the USD. In the international market, spot gold prices fell more than 1% to below 3,280 USD/ounce, the lowest level in a month. In addition to going against the trend of the USD after the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, better-than-expected US economic data, including 3% GDP growth in the second quarter and a stable job market, also pulled down gold prices.
Opening the morning session on July 31, the listed price of SJC gold bars was 119.70 million VND/tael for buying and 121.20 million VND/tael for selling, down 300,000 VND/tael each way compared to the beginning of the week.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/ty-gia-ha-nhiet-du-usd-tang-manh-sau-quyet-dinh-giu-nguyen-lai-suat-cua-fed-d345244.html
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