Ukraine risks double losses when Kurakhove stronghold falls

(Dan Tri) - Experts say that Ukraine's loss of Kurakhove to Russia has caused many unfavorable developments for Kiev.

Ukraine is trying to resist Russia's advance in Donetsk (Photo: Reuters).

The Russian Defense Ministry announced on January 6 that it had captured Kurakhove, the largest territory in southwestern Donbass, from Ukraine. Russia said Ukraine had lost more than 12,000 soldiers and 3,000 units of weapons and military equipment, including tanks and other armored fighting vehicles.

Ukraine has so far not commented on Russia's statement, although Moscow has posted images of soldiers raising a flag in the center of the strategic area.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's Khortytsia combat group reported that "opponents are conducting offensive operations in the urban areas of Kurakhove, towards Petropavlivka and Dachne".

According to expert Sergey Poletaev, Russia's capture of Kurakhove is a big step forward for Russia in its efforts to push up the battle lines west of Donetsk.

Logistically, Russia’s control of Kurakhove would significantly complicate its ability to provide logistical support to the Ukrainian army in Donetsk. In addition, from Kurakhove, Ukraine regularly shells the Russian-controlled capital city of Donetsk. Losing Kurakhove would make it difficult for Ukraine to fire artillery into the area.

In addition, over the past 10 years, Ukraine has turned Kurakhove into a fortified fortress area with a dense network of firing positions and underground communication systems. To capture Kurakhove, Russia conducted a multi-pronged siege tactic for many months, pushing back 15,000 Ukrainian troops there.

That means Kurakhove will help Russia expand its maneuver space on the front line, and Kiev will need large resources if it wants to regain this area.

In addition, according to expert Poletaev, Russia's control of Kurakhove opens the way for Russian troops to advance to the Dnepropetrovsk region, which borders Donetsk. Russia is only about 10km away from Dnepropetrovsk. Ukraine has been warning since last month about the risk of Russia sending troops into this area, continuing to lengthen the front line, putting pressure on its opponent in a war of attrition.

Russia may target the Dniproetrovsk region in the near future (Photo: ISW).

If Russia crosses this line, it would be Moscow's first foray into a new part of Ukraine since 2022, and it could make the war situation even more unpredictable.

Dnipropetrovsk has a lower population density than Donetsk, and is also less urbanized than Donbass, so battles will likely be fought differently.

Ukraine’s defenses in this area are relatively rudimentary and have only been reinforced in recent months. On the ground, many areas still lack complete defense lines, anti-tank ditches, and a three-layer defense system. This poses a great risk to Ukraine if Russia decides to open a new front, even though Moscow is focusing its resources on Donetsk.

In addition, Ukraine considers Dnepropetrovsk its "industrial heart". The area is home to many industrial facilities related to Kiev's military -industrial complex, including the Pavlograd Chemical Plant, which produces explosives, and Yuzhmash, which specializes in missile technology.

With relatively flat terrain and a porous fortification system, if Russia decides to advance deeper into Dnepropetrovsk, this could be a major threat to Ukraine.

However, it could also be a Russian “diversion” as they have hinted at attacking Dnepropetrovsk but appear to want to use Kurakhove as a springboard to advance towards the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. The two cities are connected by roads, forming a strategic transport corridor in the Donetsk region. Russia’s goal may be to force Ukraine to disperse its resources, exposing a weak point in its defenses.

If Ukraine loses Pokrovsk, Kiev's position on the Donetsk front will become even more challenging.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/the-gioi/ukraine-nguy-co-thiet-don-thiet-kep-khi-thanh-tri-kurakhove-that-thu-20250107150020091.htm