Coffee exports will only increase again from October 2024

As supplies gradually run out, it is not until October, when the new harvest begins, that Vietnam's coffee supply increases, helping coffee exports increase again.

Latest information from Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), price of two items coffee skyrocketed in the first trading session of the week. Of which, Arabica coffee price increased by 2.38% to 5,167.63 USD/ton. Robusta coffee price increased by 3.89% to 4,348 USD/ton, the third consecutive session of increase. The market focused on concerns about coffee supply shortage in Vietnam.

The current crop is running out of coffee, leading to a decline in monthly export data. Meanwhile, the supply of new coffee crops is expected to fall compared to the current crop, to a multi-year low due to the impact of drought at the beginning of the year.

According to Reuters, Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop could fall by up to 16% compared to the current crop due to extreme heat in the Central Highlands coffee growing region from March to early May. Thus, the new crop output is likely to be the lowest in the past 13 years.

The General Statistics Office estimates that Vietnam's coffee exports in June were only 85,000 tons, down 40% year-on-year and the third consecutive month of decline. In the first half of 2024, Vietnam exported only 902,000 tons of coffee, down nearly 11% year-on-year.

Traders said the gloomy export situation and supply shortage in Vietnam could last until November this year, when the new crop begins to be harvested.

In the domestic market, recorded this morning (July 9), the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and the Southern provinces increased sharply, bringing the domestic coffee purchase price to 125,900 - 127,100 VND/kg.

Vietnam's coffee export volume in the coming months of July, August and September will gradually decrease.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports in the coming months of July, August and September will gradually decrease, as supplies gradually run out. We have to wait until October, when the new coffee harvest begins, for Vietnam's coffee supply to increase again.

Vietnam's coffee supply is in short supply, while speculators have begun to stockpile, so coffee prices in the third quarter are expected to continue to rise. In addition, the reduced coffee supply in major exporting countries in the world due to weather such as Brazil will cause coffee prices to tend to increase in the coming time, according to VICOFA.

The above factors are expected to bring “joy” to coffee growers. Compared to the times when coffee prices fluctuated at 30,000 - 40,000 VND/kg in previous years, the current coffee price has tripled and is considered the golden season of coffee trees. With high prices, many farmers are enthusiastically increasing their investment in fertilizers, improving their gardens, expanding their growing areas... to increase output.

The latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that in the first half of this year, Vietnam exported about 902,000 tons of coffee, earning 3.22 billion USD. Compared to the same period last year, the amount of coffee exported decreased by 10.5% but the turnover increased sharply by 34.6% due to the average export price of coffee increasing by 50.4% compared to the same period in 2023.

In total, coffee prices increased by 320% from the beginning of the season to the end of the season. This brought joy to coffee growers but caused many difficulties for exporters and customers around the world due to high prices and scarce supply.

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