Warning that Ukraine's 'fortress ring' is about to be breached

Một đơn vị pháo binh của Ukraine tại vùng Donetsk — A Ukrainian artillery unit in the Donetsk region

Although it is unclear whether Russian commanders have shifted their focus, Russian soldiers are staging an attack northwest of the town of Avdiivka in Donetsk against Ukraine's fortress perimeter, according to Business Insider on April 30.

Observers say Russia has long wanted to take control of the area, after advancing in Avdiivka in February, and now has a choice of targets to pursue.

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Russia's options

Ukraine has repeatedly warned that Russia is seeking to take control of the town of Pokrovsk northwest of Bakhmut. However, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW-USA) said Russia has the option of “conducting additional offensive operations” around Chasiv Yar.

Charsiv Yar is a town near Avdiivka that is operationally important as it will provide Russian forces with a location to launch offensive operations near two of the four major towns that form Ukraine's "fortress ring" in Donetsk Oblast.

Charsiv Yar is located near Duzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, two towns in the southern part of the belt. The other two towns in the belt, Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, are located slightly to the north but also along the H-20 highway.

"The Russian military command may decide that advancing north along the H-20 highway will allow Russian forces to conduct additional follow-on offensive operations from the east and south against the southern edge of the Ukrainian fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast," according to ISW.

However, this would not be easy as Russia would still have to decide to prioritize advancing westward, rather than northwest from Avdiivka towards the fortress perimeter.

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Ukraine's concerns

Ukrainian officials now believe that Russia has deployed four brigades "nearly equal to the combat strength of a reinforced division" northwest of Avdiivka to stabilize areas of the front and support infiltration operations.

The situation on the Russian side is also challenging. Ukraine appears to have slowed Russian advances near Avdiivka with renewed reinforcements in the area, despite facing severe manpower shortages and overall disadvantages.

In recent days, Ukrainian military officials have acknowledged Russia's tactical gains in the region, while reporting a dire situation as they await US aid.

The potential advance in the area is being analyzed against the backdrop of Russia's expected major offensive this summer, when Moscow's military may have the opportunity to make significant gains in the Chasiv Yar area and beyond.

It remains unclear what arms and security assistance packages Ukraine will receive at that time and whether its forces will be able to defend against a Russian attack.

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