Will the meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden witness a "breakthrough"?

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping have agreed in principle to meet on the sidelines of the upcoming 30th Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco, USA.

Preparations for the highly anticipated high-level US-China talks are now in full swing, but analysts say they do not expect any breakthroughs on long-standing issues between the two sides.

Relations between the two world powers hit a new low earlier this year after the US military shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon and cut off virtually all communication channels. Relations have since improved, thanks in part to a series of visits by US officials to Beijing and working groups to address technology and economic issues.

Earlier this week, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Mr Biden was expected to have a “difficult… but important conversation” with the Chinese leader.

Beijing has yet to confirm Xi’s attendance. The US confirmation comes after talks last week between China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and key officials in Washington, including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The two sides agreed to “make joint efforts to achieve a meeting” between the two heads of state.

But according to a statement from China's Foreign Ministry, Mr. Wang warned that “the road to the US-China Summit in San Francisco will not be smooth” and that it cannot be left on “autopilot.”

Expressing a desire for further dialogue

Diplomatic observers are largely keeping expectations low about what the meeting – the first face-to-face talks between the two leaders in a year – can actually achieve.

“I don’t expect a big breakthrough. I don’t expect a big thaw,” said Chong Ja Ian, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.

Mr. Chong said he only expected the two sides to try to better understand each other's views and expressed a desire for further dialogue "to resolve conflicts and minimize risks."

A range of issues could be on the table when the two leaders meet, said David Arase, professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center.

World - Will the meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden witness a — Experts say “hot spots” including the South China Sea and Taiwan may be raised, but neither side expects these long-standing issues to be resolved. Photo: gCaptain

Among them, Mr. Arase expects that the two sides will call for the release of hostages and humanitarian relief for civilians in the Gaza Strip, agree to work to reduce tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, and also potentially promote cooperation in “non-strategic” areas such as climate change.

These were topics that Foreign Minister Wang Yi raised with US officials last week as they exchanged views on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

For the Xi-Biden meeting, Arase expects Washington to seek Beijing’s help in pressuring Russia, North Korea and Iran – countries that are challenging US interests. Meanwhile, Beijing will likely demand the lifting of economic sanctions imposed by the US on China.

But according to Mr. Arase, the efforts of the two leaders will likely yield only “little results.” There will not be any major results, “but it can reopen the lines of regular discussion and consultation to prevent the worrying deterioration and growing hostility in bilateral relations,” he said.

The meeting between President Xi and President Biden will send a message to the world that the US and China are acting responsibly to peacefully resolve their differences, the expert said.

Good sign for the rest of the world

The topics that Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden will discuss will depend on the time allocated for the Summit, said Mr. Alfred Wu, Associate Professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

If the leaders had more time, Mr. Wu expected a more in-depth discussion of the issues plaguing bilateral ties. If not, they might have to work out “a general direction to manage the relationship, open channels of communication and not make the situation worse,” Mr. Wu said.

When Mr Xi and Mr Biden last met – on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Indonesia last November – they talked for three hours on topics ranging from Taiwan to North Korea.

Mr Wu said “hot points” including the South China Sea and Taiwan could be raised but neither side expected these long-standing issues to be resolved. The face-to-face meeting would be seen as a channel for the two sides to talk while “trying to avoid the worst-case scenario of war”.

But Mr Wu said the meeting would be helpful for both leaders domestically. For Mr Biden, the summit would signal that he is able to communicate with China. And for Mr Xi, it would show that China is “treated equally” with the US and is a world leader.

Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based think tank Center for China and Globalization, said the Xi-Biden summit would be “very meaningful” – especially for China’s neighbors.

Leaders in the region have long called for more stable US-China relations and expressed concern about having to pick sides in the growing competition between the two superpowers.

“Just a photo of the two leaders shaking hands would send a big signal to the outside world,” said Mr. Wang, who said the summit had been delayed for too long.

“The talks will bring good results to other regions. It meets the expectations of the world,” Mr. Wang said. “The world needs stability and when the leaders of the two largest economies meet, it will stabilize the world economy and create good signals for the rest of the world . ”

Minh Duc (According to SCMP, Bloomberg)

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