Latest forecast on VND interest rates in Vietnam

(NLDO) - It is forecasted that the State Bank will keep the operating interest rate unchanged, and the loan interest rate will remain low to support economic growth...

This is the opinion expressed by experts from UOB Bank on the afternoon of September 17, at the Vietnam macroeconomic update session for the end of 2025.

Interest Rate Impact Factors: Young and Dynamic Resilient Economy

According to Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Head of Global Economics and Market Research, UOB Bank (Singapore), despite risks and uncertainties from tariffs, the Vietnamese economy still shows resilience and dynamism. Export activities are particularly strong, although there are still potential risks if demand from the US weakens due to price pressure from tariffs.

“Following an impressive 7.5% growth in the first half and expectations of support from increased public investment, we have revised up our full-year 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7.5% (from our previous forecast of 6.9%; compared to 7.09% in 2024). For 2026, UOB maintains its growth forecast at 7%,” said Mr. Suan Teck Kin.

UOB Bank raises Vietnam's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%

During the period 2026-2045, UOB Bank experts believe that an average annual growth rate of about 7% is completely feasible for Vietnam. This will become a reality if current reform and opening-up policies, along with investment and trade, continue to be promoted and effectively implemented.

Maintain interest rate level

Regarding interest rates, according to the global economic outlook report for the fourth quarter of 2025, the Global Economic and Market Research Department, UOB Bank (Singapore), with positive growth prospects in the second half of 2025 and pressure on the VND exchange rate... will limit the State Bank's ability to loosen monetary policy. UOB Bank forecasts that the State Bank will keep the refinancing rate unchanged at 4.5%.

Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Head of Global Markets and Economics Research, UOB Bank

Mr. Dinh Duc Quang, Director of Currency Trading Division, UOB Vietnam Bank, said that the management agency will continue to stabilize policy interest rates in the short term and only start to lower interest rates when the roadmap for a sharp cut in USD interest rates in the US market is certain.

In a positive development, according to the forecast from UOB Research Group, the US Federal Reserve (FED) may cut interest rates three times by a total of 0.5 - 0.75%, bringing USD interest rates down to around 3.75% by the end of this year. And if this scenario happens, the State Bank may consider starting to cut VND interest rates by the end of 2025, creating growth momentum for 2026.

"In Vietnam, the overall picture still shows positive stability, with high economic growth, inflation controlled within the target, stable interest rates and exchange rates fluctuating around 4% since the beginning of the year. With an average annual inflation rate of around 4% for an economic growth target of more than 8%, the VND mobilization interest rate is currently around 5%, short-term lending interest rate is 6-7%, medium and long-term lending is 8-9% is appropriate. With the current interest rate level, credit in the whole system can reach 19-20% for the whole year" - Mr. Quang said.

According to the Vietnam Banks Association, the State Bank of Vietnam is continuing to maintain a loose monetary policy stance, keeping the refinancing rate and discount rate at record lows, 4.5%/year and 3%/year, respectively, from June 2023. This easing is aimed at supporting economic growth.

The stability of deposit interest rates in the context of high credit growth is assessed by some organizations as thanks to the liquidity of the banking system remaining abundant after the management agency flexibly operated the open market operations (OMO) tool.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-lai-suat-vnd-tai-viet-nam-196250917193057029.htm