Vietnam's auto market forecast for 2025 is unlikely to meet expectations

Car sales in Vietnam continued to decline, with August 2025 recording its lowest level since March this year.

A car dealership in Hai Phong city.

The Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association (VAMA) said that in August 2025, its members sold 25,973 vehicles, down 18% compared to July. If we add the figures from VinFast (10,922 vehicles) and Hyundai (3,701 vehicles), the total market consumption only reached 40,596 vehicles, down 13% compared to the previous month and becoming the lowest level since March.

This is also the second consecutive month of decline, after a period of steady growth in the previous three months. The erratic trend shows that the Vietnamese auto market has not yet been able to escape the unstable cycle, when market demand is affected by many factors: policies, car loan costs and consumer waiting psychology.

Auto expert Nguyen Tuan commented: “Car buyers today have a procrastination mentality, especially in big cities like Hanoi , where low-emission zones are about to be implemented. They are worried that spending money on internal combustion engine cars may be risky in the future. At the same time, consumer loan interest rates have not yet dropped significantly, which also slows down the decision to buy a new car.”

According to the companies, although real demand still exists, cautious sentiment is prevailing, especially in the popular car segment. Incentive and discount programs are continuously launched but the effectiveness is not enough to reverse the downward trend.

In the first 8 months of 2025, the Vietnamese automobile market consumed about 380,000 vehicles of all kinds. With this result, to reach the target of 560,000 - 580,000 vehicles as initially expected, the last 4 months of the year need to consume about 180,000 - 200,000 more vehicles, or an average of 45,000 - 50,000 vehicles per month.

In the current context, many experts believe this scenario is unlikely. Mr. Le Anh Tuan, an auto consultant, said: “Without a strong enough stimulus package, sales for the whole year will only fluctuate around 520,000 - 540,000 vehicles. The growth rate may be equal to or lower than in 2024.

In the automotive segments, the electric and hybrid vehicle segment is expected to be a bright spot in 2025, with a forecast growth of 40-50% compared to 2024, thanks to the Government's preferential registration fee policy for electric vehicles and policies from manufacturers and green consumption trends. In the long term, the green energy transition roadmap can create momentum for the development of the electric vehicle market. However, in the short term, the lack of synchronization in charging station infrastructure, high prices and customer hesitation are still major barriers.

According to industry experts, the Vietnamese auto market in 2025 is in a challenging period. Continuously declining sales, increasing imports and environmental policies are strongly influencing consumer sentiment. Although the long-term outlook for the green car segment remains positive, the full-year sales target is unlikely to be achieved as expected. The auto industry is in need of more practical support measures, including consumer stimulus and a clear policy roadmap, to restore market confidence.

PV (synthesis)

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/du-bao-thi-truong-o-to-viet-nam-2025-kho-dat-ky-vong-521082.html