The market tends to decrease across the board.

Soybeans fell slightly by 0.5%.

At the end of the trading session on October 15, soybean prices fell slightly by 0.5% to 991 cents/bushel. Although the decline from the beginning of the week continued in the morning session, the overwhelming buying pressure around the 980 support zone in the evening session, combined with positive fundamental information, narrowed the decline. In the Daily Export Sales report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the sale of 131,000 tons of soybeans for delivery in the 24/25 crop year to China. This is the 6th largest soybean sale since the beginning of October and the 3rd order to China, with a total volume of 413,000 tons.

According to data from the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), the US soybean crush in September was 177.32 million bushels, higher than the market average forecast of 170.33 million bushels. This is also up 7% year-over-year and now a record September crush. On the other hand, in its initial estimate for the 24/25 crop year, CONAB forecast soybean production at 116.05 million tonnes, up nearly 13% from the previous crop year.

Agricultural news on October 16, 2024: The market tends to decrease across the board. Photo: MH

As a result, the export forecast also increased by 14% to 105.54 million tons, equivalent to the figure given by USDA in the wasde 10 report. The Brazilian Exporters Association (ANEC) raised the country's October soybean export forecast to 4.34 million tons, compared to 4.12 in the report last week. Meanwhile, the cumulative soybean imports of the 24/25 crop year into the EU through October 13 reached 3.52 million tons, higher than the 3.25 level of the same period last year.

Soybean exports in the week ending October 10 reached 1.57 million tons, down slightly from the previous week and within the market's forecast range. In the early morning of October 16, in the Crop Progress report, USDA said that the soybean harvest in the US has now reached 67% of the expected area, up 20% from the previous week and higher than the market's forecast of 64%.

Soybean meal and soybean oil reduced

Soybean oil inventories fell for a sixth straight month in September to 1.066 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2014, according to NOPA. The inventory was also down 6 percent from August and nearly 4 percent from a year ago. This was the main factor driving soybean oil prices up 1.3 percent yesterday to 42.45 cents/pound. The mixed pressure from higher soybean oil prices combined with weaker soybean prices sent soybean meal down 1.1 percent to $311.80/ton short, the lowest since early September. The Brazilian Exporters Association (ANEC) raised its October soybean meal export forecast to 2.47 million tons, up from 2.28 million tons in its report last week.

Corn fell sharply for the fourth session

Corn prices continued to fall sharply for the fourth consecutive session, falling as much as 1.7% to 401.25 cents per bushel, also the lowest closing price since early September. Improved supplies in Brazil and negative export data from the US were the main factors pressuring prices. CONAB gave an initial forecast for Brazil's 24/25 corn production at 119.74 million tons, 4 million tons higher than the previous crop. The Brazilian Exporters Association (ANEC) raised its forecast for the country's October corn exports to 6.22 million tons, compared with 5.68 in its report last week.

The French Ministry of Agriculture raised its 2024 corn production forecast from 14.39 to 14.47 million tons, 11% higher than the same period last year. On the demand side, cumulative corn imports for the 2024/25 crop year into the EU as of October 13 reached 5.7 million tons, up from 5.4 million tons in the same period last year.

According to Export Inspections, US corn exports last week were just 430,000 tonnes, less than half of the previous week and below market expectations. US corn harvest is now 47% complete, up 17% from last week and above market expectations of 44%.

Wheat falls for third straight session

Similar to corn, wheat also had a third consecutive decline, down nearly 1% to 579.5 cents/bushel. Despite the USDA selling a large order of 120,000 tons of SRW wheat to Mexico, the US dollar's rise to a two-month high kept commodity prices under pressure, especially commodities with high hedge fund participation such as wheat. Cumulative exports of soft wheat MY24/25 to the EU through October 13 reached 6.64 million tons, significantly lower than the 9.31 million tons in the same period last year.

The French Agriculture Ministry has cut its estimate for 2024 soft wheat production from 25.78 to 25.43 million tonnes, down nearly 28% from last year and the lowest since 1986. Ukraine's grain exports through Romania's Constanta port have now reached 5.17 million tonnes in the first nine months of the year, down by half from last year.

Total exports through the key Black Sea port were 21.86 million tonnes, down 13% year-on-year. Wheat exports for the week ending October 10 were 371,000 tonnes, up slightly by 2% from the previous week, according to the USDA. Winter wheat planting as of October 13 was 64% complete, up 13% from the previous week and 2% below market expectations.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/ban-tin-nong-san-ngay-16102024-thi-truong-co-xu-huong-dong-loat-giam-352850.html