Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee Nguyen Thanh Nghi speaks - Photo: VGP/HT
The economic growth model is gradually reaching its limit, it is time to create a new growth model.
On the afternoon of October 2, the third Vietnam New Economy Forum (VNEF) with the theme: "Vietnam's economic resilience from internal strength to global value chain" took place in Hanoi. This is an event directed by the Central Policy and Strategy Committee, in coordination with the General Economic Department, the Institute for Policy and Strategy Research, the Vietnam Economic Science Association and the Vietnam Economic Magazine/VnEconomy.
Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc and Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Commission Nguyen Thanh Nghi co-chaired the forum.
Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee Nguyen Thanh Nghi affirmed: The development goals by 2030 and 2045 are the strong aspirations of the nation, making Vietnam a powerful and prosperous country, standing shoulder to shoulder with the world powers.
After nearly 40 years of renovation, Vietnam has achieved many achievements of historical significance. From a poor, backward economy, it has now become one of the most dynamically developing economies in the region, with strong GDP growth and constantly improving people's lives.
According to data, Vietnam has been in the middle-income group since 2008 and is expected to enter the upper-middle-income group by the end of 2025. Its estimated GDP is fourth in ASEAN, 32nd in the world and among the 20 countries with the largest trade globally.
However, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nghi also frankly admitted: economic growth is still mainly based on breadth, the speed tends to slow down and the current model has revealed many shortcomings such as: The economy relies heavily on capital, resources and cheap labor. The contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) is still low, labor productivity improves slowly; Processing and assembly industry is dominant, low added value, heavily dependent on imported raw materials and technology...
At the same time, the world situation is full of uncertainties: fierce trade and technology competition, increasingly strict international standards on environment and trade. For an economy with a large openness like Vietnam, this has a significant impact on exports and growth.
The third Vietnam New Economy Forum (VNEF) with the theme: "Vietnam's economic resilience from internal strength to global value chain" - Photo: VGP/HT
4 directions to improve internal strength and participate in the global value chain
From the above reality, Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee Nguyen Thanh Nghi proposed 4 key orientations:
Firstly, it is necessary to renew traditional growth drivers, focusing on exports, investment and consumption, while exploiting remaining room.
Second, create new momentum, develop digital economy, green economy, high technology, and emerging industries to create momentum.
Third, promote internal strength and economic linkages, strengthen connections between economic regions, between domestic enterprises and FDI.
Fourth, expanding scale associated with added value, promoting faster growth in agriculture, industry, construction and services.
"Innovating the growth model is not only an economic task but also a political and historical mission to ensure independence, autonomy and self-reliance, bringing Vietnam into a new era of development. With the consensus of the political system, the business community and the entire population, Vietnam can make a breakthrough, achieve double-digit growth, and realize the aspiration of a developed, high-income nation by 2045," emphasized Nguyen Thanh Nghi, Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee.
Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, Vice President of the Vietnam Economic Science Association shares information - Photo: VGP/HT
Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, Vice President of the Vietnam Economic Science Association, also pointed out: GDP in 2025 is estimated to reach 500 billion USD, 64 times higher than in 1986; average income per capita is about 5,000 USD. Import and export have continuously increased, bringing Vietnam into the group of 20 leading trading countries in the world.
However, Mr. Cuong emphasized: The internal strength of the economy has not been fully exploited. Exports depend mainly on the FDI sector, the domestic value added content is still low, only about 30-35%. Production is concentrated on processing and assembly, making labor productivity among the lowest in the world. If there is no change, the risk of falling into the middle-income trap is very high.
Dr. Tran Quoc Khanh, former Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Standing Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, further analyzed: The growth model based on exports and FDI has helped Vietnam maintain a high growth rate for more than 30 years. However, the changing world context, increasing protectionism and unilateralism have caused this model to face many challenges.
According to Mr. Khanh, in the coming period, Vietnam can still rely on exports, but needs to adapt flexibly to fluctuations. At the same time, it is necessary to balance exports and domestic demand, in which household consumption must become a sustainable pillar.
Mr. Khanh also proposed to increase the domestic value added ratio from exports. If Vietnam currently exports 500 billion USD but only retains 20% of the value, it needs to be increased to 25-30% to reach 200 billion USD in domestic value without having to expand the export scale too strongly.
"To make a breakthrough, Vietnam needs to shift from "sincere integration" to "smart integration", increase the value content of Vietnamese products in export products, gradually replace imported materials, and move up to a higher value stage in the global production chain," said Mr. Tran Quoc Khanh.
The speakers all agreed that this is an important time for Vietnam to create a new growth model, promote internal strength, and take advantage of opportunities from digital transformation, green economy, and technology trends. The discussions and contributions at VNEF 2025 will become an important basis for the Party and Government's strategies and policies, serving the preparation of the 14th National Congress Documents.
Mr. Minh
Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/tu-noi-luc-den-chuoi-gia-tri-toan-cau-khat-vong-but-pha-cua-kinh-te-viet-nam-102251002190020823.htm
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