How could the conflict in Gaza affect the US presidential election?

(Dan Tri) - US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is pursuing a tougher stance on the Israel issue. This has helped her regain support from important constituencies.

US Vice President Kamala Harris (right) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo: EPA).

As the Democratic National Convention got underway on August 19, a strange development occurred in Israel. In Tel Aviv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Israel had accepted a “mediate proposal” for a ceasefire. He stressed that the current situation depended on whether Hamas agreed. However, contrary to that statement, officials from both Israel and Hamas said there had been no progress in the peace talks in Qatar. This was not surprising, given that just three weeks earlier, Hamas negotiator and political leader Ismail Haniyeh had been assassinated in Tehran. Hamas has so far blamed Israel. Then, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly rejected his negotiators’ offer to make concessions. After months, they said a ceasefire was impossible as Netanyahu persisted in his stance. So, contrary to Secretary of State Blinken's statement that a deal was within reach, Prime Minister Netanyahu told the families of hostages held by Hamas that he was "not sure there would be a deal". The Hostage Family Forum commented: "The Prime Minister's remarks have undermined the hostage exchange agreement". US President Joe Biden is leading a Democratic Party that has long been deeply divided on the issue of the conflict in Gaza. However, he is a strong supporter of Israel. Immediately after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Mr. Biden traveled to Tel Aviv to show solidarity with the Netanyahu administration and made a commitment: "As long as America exists, we will never leave you alone". Overcoming the Gaza issue Ms. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, has taken a different approach to the Gaza issue as well as the future of Israel and Palestine. Notably, she was more straightforward in making requests for a ceasefire. However, it remains to be seen how she will address the division within her party on this issue as she campaigns for the White House. Before Mr. Biden announced he was ending his presidential bid and nominated Ms. Harris to replace him in July, many analysts said the Israel-Gaza issue could impact the Democratic Party in the election. In the battleground state of Michigan, the official number of Arab voters is 211,405, but some estimates suggest the number could be as high as 500,000. Their votes could be decisive given the number of votes for Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. In 2016, Mr. Trump received less than 11,000 votes. In 2020, the number of this group of voters supporting Mr. Biden was just over 150,000 votes. After joining the race for the White House, Ms. Harris has worked hard to attract the support of this group of voters. In just a few days, the Democrat went from trailing Republican Donald Trump by 3 to 7 points to leading by 3 to 4 points in Michigan polls. That shift shows no signs of reversing. Outside Michigan, Harris has made a push among younger voters who previously opposed Biden’s stance on the Middle East. This may be due in part to Harris’s different views on that issue. This spring, despite no apparent move to end Washington’s support for Israel, Harris began emphasizing the well-being of Gazans, who she believes must be protected from Israeli attacks and the humanitarian crisis they cause. In early April, Ms. Harris commented on the phone call between Mr. Biden and Mr. Netanyahu: "We will ensure that Israel is never left without the ability to defend itself. However, if they do not change their approach to solving the problem, it is very possible that we will change our approach." During a campaign rally in Arizona on August 9, Ms. Harris responded to pro-Palestinian protesters by stopping her speech and directly addressing their concerns. "I have made it clear, now is the time to reach a ceasefire and implement a hostage agreement," she emphasized. The reality of the competition

US Vice President Kamala Harris (Photo: AFP).

Harris’s position is not convincing enough for some pro-Palestinian activists. But for the Democratic campaign, most potential presidential voters will have other priorities besides Gaza. The pro-Palestinian protesters are really just a small ripple in the Democratic Party’s unity. So if the race is changing, it doesn’t seem to be about Gaza. On the contrary, Harris and her vice presidential running mate, Tim Walz, are making small gains in five swing states. What’s more, Harris’s campaign is doing better in other states where Biden once trailed Trump. Harris erased an eight-point lead and even took the lead in Arizona and North Carolina. She erased Trump’s advantage in Nevada and narrowed the gap to 1 or 2 points in Georgia. At the Democratic National Convention last week, Ms. Harris encouraged the crowd: “This November, we will come together and declare: we are moving forward.” The very next day, in Gaza, an Israeli airstrike on a school that was sheltering civilians killed 12 people. While the faint hope of a “ceasefire” persists, there are three realities to consider: First, if the war ends, Mr. Netanyahu will face early elections and a trial; second, Ms. Harris is likely to win regardless of a ceasefire; third, Gazans will continue to die without a ceasefire.

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