On June 25, the central exchange rate announced by the State Bank was 25,055 VND/USD, down 3 VND per USD compared to yesterday. With a 5% margin, commercial banks will trade USD buying and selling prices from 23,800 - 26,308 VND/USD.
Banks are trading USD close to the allowed ceiling. Vietcombank listed the USD buying price at 25,987 VND and selling price at 26,307 VND, down 3 VND per USD compared to yesterday.
Similarly, BIDV , Sacombank, and Eximbank also pushed the USD buying and selling prices close to the allowed ceiling, around 25,980 VND/USD buying, 26,307 VND/USD selling.
Since the beginning of the year, the exchange rate has increased by about 2.9%. This is a high increase in the context of the USD cooling down in the international market. The USD index (DXY) is trading at 98 points.
Speaking to a reporter from Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper, Ms. Bui Thi Thao Ly, Director of the Analysis Center of Shinhan Securities Vietnam Company, said that the USD/VND exchange rate is quite tense in the context of the USD index decreasing by 8.71% compared to the end of last year. Many currencies in the region have increased in value compared to the USD, while the VND has decreased in value quite a lot.
"In the first five months of this year, inflation remained low but the exchange rate increased. The reason may come from the skyrocketing demand for USD for businesses to import and export goods.
Before the tariffs took effect, businesses were boosting exports by nearly 14% and imports by about 17.5% in the past five months – a sudden increase that exceeded previous forecasts,” said Ms. Thao Ly.
USD price at commercial banks increased about 2.9% since the beginning of the year.
Mr. Nguyen Thanh Lam, Director of Retail Client Analysis at Maybank Securities, said the USD/VND exchange rate has increased for five consecutive weeks, due to the market being cautious in the context of the US-Vietnam trade negotiations and the interest rate outlook of the US Federal Reserve (FED). The widening USD-VND interest rate gap is driving arbitrage activities.
"The exchange rate may soon stabilize thanks to the trade surplus and positive FDI. The forecast that the FED will lower interest rates from July will help reduce pressure in the medium term," Mr. Lam commented.
Meanwhile, Mr. Dao Hong Duong, Director of Industry and Stock Analysis at VPBank Securities, said that exchange rate pressure is mainly short-term, and the State Bank can completely control it with regulatory measures.
Mr. Duong cited that the debt/export turnover ratio is decreasing compared to the same period in 2024, while the USD index has fallen to its lowest since March (97-98 points).
"With current factors, I do not think it is necessary to adjust interest rates to lower the exchange rate. The GDP growth target of 8% is still feasible, in which interest rates and money supply will play a key role," Mr. Duong said.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/dieu-gi-khien-gia-usd-tai-viet-nam-tang-cao-196250625130158058.htm
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