Forecast of university benchmark scores 2023

The increase in average scores in Biology, Literature, and English will lead to an increase in the benchmark scores for related combinations, according to many experts.

According to the score distribution of 9 subjects of the high school graduation exam announced by the Ministry of Education and Training on the morning of July 18, the average score of most subjects has not changed significantly compared to last year. Excluding Civic Education - a subject that rarely appears in university entrance exam combinations, the Biology score has changed the most, increasing by 1.37 points compared to last year's average, to 6.39.

Three other subjects with average scores increasing are Literature, English and Chemistry, but the increase is not much, only 0.06-0.35. Meanwhile, the average scores of Math, Physics, History and Geography decreased by 0.1-0.35.

Due to the sharp increase in the average score of Biology, the B00 combination score (Math, Chemistry, Biology) also increased by 1.21 points, from an average of 18.19 to 19.4. The D01 combination (Math, Literature, English) also recorded an average increase, but not much, from 18.13 last year to 18.56 this year.

The average scores of other traditional combinations including A00 (Math, Physics, Chemistry), A01 (Math, Physics, English), C00 (Literature, History, Geography) decreased slightly by 0.07 to 0.49 points. Of which, combination A00 recorded the lowest average score in the past 4 years.

Master Phung Quan, University of Natural Sciences , Ho Chi Minh City National University, said that the benchmark scores will not fluctuate much. He predicted that majors with benchmark scores of 27 or higher will increase slightly or remain unchanged, especially in super "hot" majors such as Computer Science, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Science.

The majors with scores below 27 points will have a slight decrease. This forecast is somewhat similar to the sharing from Hanoi University of Science and Technology and Ho Chi Minh City when the Ministry of Education and Training has not announced the exam scores. The basis of the schools' predictions at that time was based on the assessment of the exam questions from teachers and high school candidates, as well as the number of candidates choosing the Natural Science exam - the source of recruitment for technical schools, which decreased compared to the previous year.

As for the B00 and D01 groups, Mr. Quan said the benchmark score will increase slightly.

As a Biology teacher - the subject with the strongest fluctuation in scores this year, Mr. Dinh Duc Hien, HOCMAI Education System, believes that the benchmark score for the B00 combination will remain the same or increase slightly by 0.25-0.5 points at top schools; increase by 1-2 points at schools with lower entrance requirements.

The reason is that the peak of the B00 group is from 21 to 21.5, nearly 2 points higher than last year. The top 10 candidates with the highest score in the B00 group this year are also 0.3-0.5 points higher than the leading group in 2022.

Analyzing in depth the group with good scores in each subject, Professor Nguyen Dinh Duc, Chairman of the Council of the University of Technology, Hanoi National University, also commented that the combinations with Biology, English, and Literature could increase by 0.5-1 point compared to last year.

The reason is that the percentage of students who scored 8 or higher in these subjects has increased. For example, in Biology, this percentage reached 10.57%, twice as high as last year. In English and Literature, the number of students who scored excellently has also increased by about 3%.

On the other hand, the number of exams with scores of 8 or higher in Math, Chemistry, Physics, History, and Geography is much lower than last year. For example, in Geography, the number of exams with excellent scores is 6.6%, while last year it was 16.7%. In Math, the rate decreased from 21.8% last year to 15.1% this year. In Chemistry, the rate this year reached 22.6%, lower than last year's 27.8%.

Therefore, Mr. Duc believes that the combination of Math, Chemistry, and Geography subjects is expected to have a lower admission score of 0.5-1.5 points.

Despite analyzing the exam scores carefully, Mr. Duc said that the increase or decrease in the benchmark score depends on the quota compared to last year. If the quota for other methods increases significantly, the quota for admission based on high school decreases, the benchmark score, for all majors, is expected to decrease within the range of 0.5-1.5 points.

Candidates taking the high school graduation exam in Ho Chi Minh City on June 29. Photo: Quynh Tran

Associate Professor Dr. Bui Duc Trieu, Head of the Training Department of the National Economics University, also commented that university admission scores may decrease. According to the rule, low test scores lead to lower admission scores, but the top majors do not fluctuate much. The middle majors are more disrupted, but with this year's bonus point reduction mechanism, the fluctuation will not be strong.

"In general, stability will play a dominant role. Candidates should refer to last year's scores, adding or subtracting about 0.5-1 point depending on each group of subjects to consider registering for appropriate wishes," said Mr. Trieu.

This year’s high school graduation exam took place over two days, June 28-29, with more than one million candidates taking the exam. Of these, more than 943,300 used the results to both recognize graduation and apply to universities and colleges.

Based on the exam scores, candidates can register, adjust and add university admission wishes until 5:00 p.m. on July 30 and there is no limit to the number of times. From July 31 to 5:00 p.m. on August 6, candidates can pay university admission fees online.

Look up schools and majors that match your exam scores

The Ministry of Education and Training and schools will begin the process of considering and processing university applications from August 12 to 20, thereby determining the highest application of admitted candidates.

From 5pm on August 22, schools will announce the benchmark scores and the first round of admissions. Candidates must confirm their admission before 5pm on September 6.

Duong Tam - Thanh Hang - Nhat Le

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