Russia overcomes "fire god" HIMARS, Ukraine tries to destroy artillery positions

Nga khắc chế hỏa thần HIMARS, Ukraine căng mình phá trận địa pháo binh - 1 — M142 HIMARS system fires towards Bakhmut, Ukraine (Photo: Getty).

“Western artillery supplies to Ukraine in the future are unlikely to surpass those of Russia,” said Michael Kofman and Dara Massicot, fellows at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace , and Rob Lee, fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Ukrainian forces are facing severe ammunition shortages and are outgunned by Russian forces. This marks a significant reversal from the summer when Kiev used artillery shells to attack Russian positions. This was due to Russia increasing its production of artillery shells and buying weapons from abroad.

Ukraine is estimated to be firing just 2,000 shells a day, while Russia is firing around 10,000 a day. Experts say Moscow's firing rate will continue at the current rate or higher this year.

According to experts Kofman, Massicot and Lee, "since Ukraine was unable to overcome Russia's defenses last summer with its advantage in artillery numbers, the prospects for future attacks will worsen unless Ukraine and its backers can compensate by enhancing other advantages."

“This means that the number of artillery shells will have to be supplemented with drones and other precision strike equipment in the future,” the experts added.

It is worth noting that Ukraine is no longer relying on the US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) or Excalibur artillery shells to degrade Russian firepower, experts say.

HIMARS have been in the spotlight since they first appeared on the battlefield in 2022, and as Kiev has used them to attack Russian positions, while preventing Moscow from deploying large quantities of ammunition close to the front line and maintaining a high rate of fire.

But by 2023, Russia had adapted to this problem and moved high-value assets – such as ammunition depots and logistics facilities – out of range of HIMARS, reducing the weapon's effectiveness.

Experts say that with these adjustments, the West and Ukraine need to find new ways to reduce the rate of fire of Russian forces, with one potential solution being more precision-guided munitions with longer ranges.

"Planning should not only be based on experience from 2023 but also take into account the ability to adapt and innovate technology on the battlefield," experts said.

Ukraine has received some effective precision-guided munitions from NATO members in 2023 and used them to attack Russian targets. Ukrainian forces have used Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles supplied by the UK and France to attack Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, and have also switched to the US-supplied MGM-140 Tactical Missile System or ATACMS to deal a heavy blow to Russia’s helicopter fleet.

Ukraine has only a limited number of these weapons. Although France recently pledged to supply Ukraine with more SCALP missiles, there has been no confirmation of new ATACMS strikes, nor has there been any information about the delivery of these weapons since last fall.

As the future of US military aid to Ukraine remains uncertain, Western officials continue to signal that halting military aid could have dire consequences in the near future.

"If we want a lasting and just peace, we must provide Ukraine with more weapons and ammunition. Providing weapons to Ukraine is the path to peace," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a recent joint press conference with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

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