Satellite waves and opportunities for real estate market development

After the merger, the expanded urban space helps Ho Chi Minh City move closer to the "super urban" model, along with the expectation that capital flows and population will move in new orbits.

In that context, the satellite real estate market is mentioned as a great opportunity. At the 2025 Housing Real Estate Forum with the theme "Satellite Wave" organized by the Vietnam Real Estate Association (VNREA) in collaboration with the Lao Dong Newspaper and the Real Estate Review Community on the afternoon of September 18 in Ho Chi Minh City, a series of key issues were dissected to shape a suitable development model for the coming period.

Positive changes

From a policy perspective, Dr. Nguyen Van Khoi - Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, member of the Prime Minister's Reform Advisory Council, former Vice Chairman of the Hanoi People's Committee - said that the real estate market recently opened up great opportunities when converging 3 driving forces: currency - credit cooling interest rates; public investment boosted with highways, metro, airports, bringing infrastructure closer to the suburbs; new and more transparent legal framework. According to him, reduced interest rates directly increase the actual purchasing power of housing; large-scale infrastructure projects create a natural "gravity" towards satellite areas; amended and supplemented laws help businesses reduce legal risks and speed up supply deployment.

Real estate supply also recorded a brighter picture. Mr. Vuong Duy Dung, Deputy Director of the Department of Housing and Real Estate Market Management - Ministry of Construction , said that since the beginning of the year, the supply has been abundant, equal to 120% over the same period. The product structure is more diverse, including the segment serving low-income people and social housing in urban areas.

Regarding prices, Mr. Dung admitted that although the price level is still high, "the whole market is generally relatively stable, without fever". Regarding affordability, according to him, it is necessary to look at it from the perspective of accumulated income and household spending structure, instead of comparing machines with average monthly income.

"Nowadays, buyers not only have a house but also have a quality life," Mr. Dung commented. He emphasized that the living standards in urban areas today are very different from 20 years ago, leading to prices reflecting many factors such as amenities, services and operations.

More specifically, Mr. Vo Hong Thang, Deputy General Director of DKRA Group, said that in the first 8 months of 2025, Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces recorded positive signs of recovery. Apartment supply reached 28,114 units, up 58% over the same period; absorption was more than 20,000 units, 3.1 times higher than in 2024.

The townhouse and villa segment offered 10,133 products, up 71%; with 4,817 products consumed, 4 times higher than the same period. Land plots provided 7,167 products, up only 3% but the absorption volume reached 1,130 products, up 2.2 times. Notably, investment demand is still higher than residential demand; the group interested in buying real estate is mostly in the age group of 35 - 44 (36%), while buyers for residence are commonly in the age group of 25 - 34, accounting for 40%.

The 2025 Housing Real Estate Forum attracted a large number of investors and experts to attend. Photo: HOANG TRIEU

Must meet multiple criteria

At the forum, opinions said that planning must set out necessary conditions for "satellite waves" to become a long-term driving force.

Dr. Ngo Viet Nam Son, a planning expert, believes that in the near future, Ho Chi Minh City will "almost be a super urban sub-region", playing the role of a nucleus connecting and promoting industry and services in satellite areas. According to him, businesses talk a lot about utilities, but "selling life to people is what is attractive". Satellite cities that want people to live must come with schools, jobs, and public health care , so that they have stable jobs and a good enough income, "parents can move closer to the urban area to buy or rent, both are still good".

Mr. Son cited the example of the South Saigon area that was previously planned systematically, with social infrastructure coming first before selling real estate, and a detailed plan that was consistently implemented to help increase value sustainably. Three weaknesses that need to be kept in mind when developing urban areas, according to him, are the mechanism - legality, the surrounding environment (such as flooding, even in a well-planned area) and the issue of identity - spatial management when the surrounding area is messy, which can drag down the overall quality.

From a market perspective, Mr. Nguyen Khanh Duy, Director of Savills Vietnam Residential Sales Department, added practical criteria to avoid "ghost towns". Specifically, a successful satellite city must have at least residents, be located within a radius of 30 - 40 km from the city center, have a maximum travel time of 40 - 45 minutes by public transport, have green space and a moderate population density so that people are willing to travel far to live; the selling price must be suitable, affordable, 40% - 50% lower than the central area. These criteria are directly linked to the inter-regional infrastructure connectivity capacity, on-site service quality and the investor's pricing strategy.

On the policy front, Mr. Vuong Duy Dung emphasized that the State's orientation in the coming time is to continue amending the law, removing procedures on investment, land, planning and construction to simplify and create conditions for businesses to reduce costs, increase supply to the market, especially in product groups suitable for low-income people.

According to him, improving quality and quantity at the same time will help increase choices for real buyers, limit price increases due to local scarcity, and at the same time create a stable operating platform for satellite cities.

In the long-term vision, Dr. Nguyen Van Khoi emphasized that "satellite waves" are an inevitable trend in the period 2025-2030. Following the right trajectory including transparent policies, synchronous planning, and mechanisms to encourage real-demand housing will help real estate not only serve residential purposes but also become the foundation for sustainable economic development.

"In fact, the combination of lower interest rates, accelerated public investment and improved legal frameworks is creating favorable "exogenous conditions". To turn opportunities into value, satellite cities must fully embrace "endogenous conditions": local jobs, quality public services, transparent governance and prices that are affordable for the majority of people," the expert emphasized.

Journalist, Dr. TO DINH TUAN - Editor-in-Chief of Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper:

Accompanying the real estate market

The forum's theme "Satellite Waves" is topical and suggestive. The concept of "satellite cities" was expected to reduce the load on the central area, expand living space, and bring residential opportunities to a large number of people.

In recent years, people have witnessed the boom of satellite urban projects around Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi and many other large cities. However, the implementation has not been as expected. Satellite urban projects can only become a real wave when they are linked to real housing needs, when people find a place to live and not just a product for speculation. In this process, the role of the press is extremely important.

As for the Lao Dong Newspaper, over the years, we have been persistently accompanying the real estate market, considering it one of the core content areas. Each year, the Lao Dong Newspaper organizes more than 50 events, seminars, workshops, talk shows, etc., including many programs on the real estate market, where experts, businesses, and managers can discuss, share information, and find solutions. Through that, we hope to contribute to creating a healthy and transparent real estate market, making an important contribution to the overall development of the country's economy.

Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV, member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council:

Bring real estate prices to a reasonable level

Currently, many real estate companies tend to implement multiple projects at the same time in the same area, leading to pressure on capital, cash flow and increased financial risks. This is something that needs to be warned early to avoid negative consequences in the long term.

A statistic shows that a civil servant in Vietnam needs nearly 26 years of work to be able to buy an apartment, clearly reflecting the difference when real estate prices increase much faster than income, creating a large gap compared to the world average. Therefore, controlling prices, bringing real estate prices to a more reasonable level and diversifying capital sources and products to meet the real needs of the people is an urgent requirement.

For stable development, enterprises need to proactively transform digitally, transform greenly and participate in building a real estate database to increase transparency. On the State side, there needs to be feasible solutions to stabilize and gradually reduce price levels, diversify capital sources, develop real estate finance, restore the bond market, establish a National Housing Fund, promote cashless payments and have a reasonable tax roadmap... If implemented well, the current opportunities outweigh the challenges, creating a foundation for the real estate market to develop sustainably.

According to Dr. of Science and Architect Ngo Viet Nam Son, the biggest bottleneck in urban development associated with public transport (TOD) is the legal framework for planning and site clearance. Without a clear and transparent compensation mechanism, the project can easily stagnate.

International experience shows that it is necessary to apply a "two-price" mechanism to solve this problem. Accordingly, early compensation according to land price when infrastructure is available, people can easily hand over the land, and the State can enjoy the added value after the infrastructure is put into operation.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/song-ve-tinh-thuc-day-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-196250918220748284.htm