Accelerating public investment disbursement to maintain growth pace

VTV.vn - Growth in the third quarter was spectacular, but to reach the 8% target for the whole year, Vietnam's economy still has to overcome many bottlenecks ahead.

Bright signals from industry and exports

Despite the volatile global context, Vietnam's economy in the third quarter of 2025 still maintained a positive growth rate, bringing the 9-month results close to the target scenario of 8%. The Ministry of Finance's report shows that the industrial production index (IIP) in the third quarter increased by 10%, higher than the first quarter (8.3%) and the second quarter (9.3%). The mining industry increased sharply by 22.4% in September alone, while processing and manufacturing maintained a double-digit growth rate of 10.4%.

Total retail sales of goods and consumer services revenue in the first nine months increased by 9.5%, reflecting improved domestic purchasing power. Import-export turnover in the first nine months reached 679 billion USD, up 17.1%; exports alone reached 348.1 billion USD (up 15.8%), bringing the trade surplus to 17.16 billion USD - the highest level in many years.

Domestic purchasing power improved

The investment story is also noteworthy. Total social investment in the third quarter increased by 13.3%; the cumulative increase in the first nine months was 11.6%. Registered FDI capital reached 28.5 billion USD (up 15.2%), realized capital reached 18.8 billion USD (up 8.5%).

According to a representative of the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), private capital flows are returning more strongly, especially in the manufacturing, processing and logistics sectors. The improved business environment and flexible tax and credit policies have created momentum for the private enterprise sector.

Notably, the strong rebound of many localities. Many localities recorded impressive growth rates: 16/34 provinces and cities achieved GRDP of 8% or more in the first 9 months; 6 localities exceeded 10%, including Quang Ninh (11.67%), Hai Phong (11.59%), Phu Tho (10.22%), Ninh Binh (10.45%), Bac Ninh (10.12%) and Quang Ngai (10.15%).

According to the Ministry of Finance, many localities are currently focusing on disbursing public investment and prioritizing industrial park infrastructure, thereby attracting more FDI, creating jobs, and increasing domestic demand.

The economic results have prompted international organizations to raise their growth forecasts. UOB raised its 2025 GDP forecast for Vietnam to 7.5%; ADB also revised it from 6.6% to 6.7%. MBS reports estimate GDP in the third quarter to reach 8.6-8.9%, reflecting the resilience of the industrial, service and domestic consumption sectors.

"These adjustments are made in a more positive direction, clearly reflecting the resilience of the industrial, service and domestic consumption sectors," said economic expert Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu.

Need to turn capital into "blood" circulating in production

Although the picture for the third quarter is bright, experts warn that the fourth quarter will not be smooth. By the end of September, public investment disbursement had only reached VND454,500 billion, equivalent to 51.4% of the plan.

According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, public investment is the "ultimate lever" to realize the ambitious 8% GDP growth target.

Public investment is not only a financial indicator but also a core driver of macroeconomic growth. If the Government can disburse the entire capital plan, it can contribute 1.8 to 2 percentage points to GDP growth for the whole year. This is especially important in the context of growth being pressured by international market instability and trade protection policy risks from major partners.

In addition, Mr. Hieu warned that the biggest risk is not only the speed, but also the quality of disbursement. The expert emphasized that reviewing procedural bottlenecks such as site clearance or bidding is necessary, but a more innovative mechanism is needed.

The solution must be to optimize the spillover effects of public investment capital, focusing on large infrastructure projects with inter-regional connectivity to create sustainable economic momentum.

Reviewing procedural bottlenecks such as site clearance and bidding is necessary, but more innovative mechanisms are needed.

Expectations for policy and private sector boost

Economic experts assess that Resolution 68-NQ/TW will continue to be an important policy lever for growth at the end of the year. Of which, public investment is still the main driving force, but the private sector is the key factor for sustainable growth.

Mr. Long said, thanks to green credit incentives and simpler investment procedures, our company has boldly expanded the environmentally friendly material factory and increased investment capital. If the disbursement progress of the expressway infrastructure is accelerated, the business will benefit greatly.

According to Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong - economic expert, Vietnam is on the right track and has clear comparative advantages in terms of costs, geographical location, trade agreements, etc. However, the fourth quarter is the decisive time to close a year of impressive growth. The biggest challenge is not only capital but also the speed of policy implementation.

The 2025 sprint requires close coordination between the central and local levels, and between the public and private sectors. If public investment disbursement is pushed up to 90-95%, exports maintain the pace and domestic consumption continues to flourish, the target of 8% GDP growth for the whole year is completely feasible.

What the market needs most right now is determination and speed of action. The third quarter numbers are encouraging, but the fourth quarter is the real race./.

Source: https://vtv.vn/tang-toc-giai-ngan-dau-tu-cong-de-giu-nhip-tang-truong-100251008083123288.htm