VPI forecasts gasoline prices to reverse and increase slightly in the operating period of July 10

Photo caption — VPI forecasts gasoline prices to increase slightly in the July 10 management period. Photo: VNA

According to Mr. Doan Tien Quyet, data analysis expert of VPI, the gasoline price forecasting model applying artificial neural network (ANN) model and supervised learning algorithm in Machine Learning of VPI forecasts that the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline may increase by 119 VND (0.6%) to 19,559 VND/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may increase by 24 VND (0.1%) to 19,924 VND/liter.

VPI's model forecasts that the retail price of diesel this period may increase by 423 VND (2.3%) to 18,823 VND/liter, kerosene may increase by 218 VND (1.2%) to 18,348 VND/liter, while fuel oil is forecast to decrease by 1.9% to 15,501 VND/kg. VPI forecasts that the Ministry of Finance and Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

In the world market, in the early afternoon session of July 8 (Vietnam time), the price of North Sea Brent oil decreased by 0.3% to 69.36 USD/barrel; the price of US light sweet crude oil (WTI) also decreased by 0.4% to 67.66 USD/barrel.

Oil prices cooled as investors assessed the potential negative impact of new developments on US tariffs on the global economy and, in turn, demand for oil. However, current demand signals remain strong, especially in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, which has supported prices. Government data from India, the world's third-largest oil consumer, also showed that fuel consumption in June 2025 was 1.9% higher than the same period last year.

Previously, on July 5, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 548,000 barrels/day in August 2025, surpassing the increase of 411,000 barrels/day in the previous three months. Expert Tim Evans from Evans Energy commented: "The sharp increase in production shows that OPEC+ is ready to compete more fiercely for market share, while accepting the risk of falling prices and revenues."

According to a team of analysts at RBC Capital led by Helima Croft, the decision will return nearly 80% of the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts from eight OPEC members to the market. However, the team also noted that actual production so far has been lower than planned, with much of the new supply coming from Saudi Arabia. Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC+ to announce a final increase of 550,000 barrels per day for September at its next meeting on August 3.

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/vpi-du-bao-gia-xang-dao-chieu-tang-nhe-trong-ky-dieu-hanh-10-7/20250709080556803