Is it a paradox that domestic pork prices decrease while pork imports still increase?

Pork imports increase for the sixth consecutive month

The Import-Export Department cited data from the General Department of Customs as saying that in October 2023, Vietnam imported 81,440 tons of meat and meat products, worth 158.92 million USD, up 27.2% in volume and 7.5% in value compared to October 2022.

Giá heo trong nước giảm, nhập khẩu thịt heo vẫn tăng có là nghịch lý?

In the first 10 months of 2023, Vietnam imported 572,110 tons of meat and meat products, worth 1.15 billion USD, up 5% in volume, but down 4.9% in value over the same period in 2022.

Vietnam’s meat and meat product imports continue to increase despite the continued decline in pork prices due to the lack of improvement in purchasing power as people cut back on spending. In addition, many collective kitchens have restructured their production scale, reducing the demand for imported food.

In October 2023, Vietnam imported meat and meat products from 44 markets around the world . Of which, India remained the largest market supplying meat and meat products to Vietnam in the month, reaching 18.85 thousand tons, worth 56.21 million USD, up 44.2% in volume and 34.4% in value compared to October 2022, accounting for 23.15% in volume and 35.37% in value of the total import of meat and meat products of the whole country.

The average import price of meat and meat products from India to Vietnam decreased by 6.8% compared to the same period in 2022, down to 2,982 USD/ton. In the first 10 months of 2023, the import of meat and meat products from India reached 126,930 tons, worth 372.61 million USD, down 2.5% in volume and 11% in value compared to the same period in 2022.

In general, in the first 10 months of 2023, the market structure supplying meat and meat products to Vietnam will change as imports from India, the United States, Brazil, and South Korea tend to decrease; while imports from Russia tend to increase compared to the same period in 2022.

In October 2023, Vietnam mainly imported meat and edible by-products of poultry; fresh frozen buffalo meat; edible by-products of live pigs, buffaloes and cows, chilled or frozen; fresh chilled or frozen pork; frozen pork fat; fresh chilled or frozen beef...

Of which, beef imports continued to decrease, while imports of poultry meat, pork, buffalo meat and edible by-products after slaughter of live pigs, buffaloes and cows continued to increase compared to October 2022.

In October 2023, Vietnam imported 14,400 tons of fresh chilled or frozen pork, worth 33.88 million USD, up 20.6% in volume and 29.4% in value compared to October 2022. This is the 6th consecutive month that imported pork has increased compared to the same period in 2022. The average import price of pork to Vietnam is 2,352 USD/ton, up 7.3% compared to October 2022.

In the first 10 months of 2023, the import of fresh, chilled or frozen pork reached 95.4 thousand tons, worth 239.37 million USD, up 7% in volume and 26.1% in value over the same period in 2022.

In October 2023, Vietnam imported fresh chilled or frozen pork from 17 markets, mainly imported from Brazil, accounting for 45.61% of the country's total pork imports; followed by Russia, accounting for 33.88%; Germany, accounting for 5.69%; Canada, accounting for 3.29%; Spain, accounting for 2.13%... Notably, except for Canada, the amount of pork imported from these markets to Vietnam continued to increase compared to the same period in 2022.

In the first 10 months of 2023, the market structure supplying pork to Vietnam changed, as the proportion of imports from Russia and the United States increased; while the proportion of imports from Brazil, Germany, Canada, and the Netherlands decreased.

Are imported pigs a factor affecting domestic pig prices?

In November 2023, the price of live pigs across the country is on a downward trend as purchasing power in the market has not shown any signs of recovery. Currently, the surveyed price in provinces and cities fluctuates between 48,000 - 53,000 VND/kg, down from 1,000 - 2,000 VND/kg compared to the end of last month. Specifically, the price of live pigs in the Northern region is currently fluctuating between 50,000 - 52,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 VND/kg compared to the end of last month.

The price of live pigs in the Central and Central Highlands regions is currently fluctuating between 49,000 - 51,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 - 2,000 VND/kg compared to the end of last month. The price of live pigs in the Southern region is currently fluctuating between 48,000 - 53,000 VND/kg, down 1,000 - 2,000 VND/kg compared to the end of last month.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in 2023, Vietnam's pork output will reach about 4,568 thousand tons.

Experts said that although pork imports have been continuously increasing, statistics show that the amount of imported pork in the first 10 months of 2023 accounted for about 2.1% of domestic pork production.

Thus, it can be affirmed that imported pork in the first 10 months of 2023 cannot affect the recent decrease in pork prices.

Up to this point, the livestock situation of enterprises and farms is still quite stable. Currently, the total pig herd in the country is about 28.6 - 28.7 million.

Mr. Nguyen Van Trong - former Deputy Director of the Department of Animal Husbandry (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) commented that with the current pig herd rate, it can basically meet the domestic market's demand for pork and pork products from now until the end of the year, including the Lunar New Year 2024.

“It is forecasted that consumption demand in late 2023 and early 2024, mainly for the Lunar New Year, will increase by 10-15% compared to other months of the year. Therefore, with the stable maintenance of livestock and poultry and the disease situation being strictly controlled, the market supply will basically be stable, without food shortages,” said Mr. Nguyen Van Trong.

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