The risk of escalating a full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel

Despite declaring that it is not interested in a full-scale war with Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon is using a variety of weapons to attack Israel, causing observers to worry about the risk of escalating into a war that could destroy both sides.

Increase pressure

Reuters quoted a source close to Hezbollah as saying that recently, the force has used a large number of explosive-laden drones, a new type of missile and claimed to have targeted Israeli fighter jets for the first time. In retaliation for the assassination of a senior commander by Israel, Hezbollah carried out the most intense attacks since the conflict between the two sides in October 2023, firing 250 rockets into Israel on April 12 and using drones and missiles to target nine Israeli military sites on April 13, injuring at least two Israelis.

Sources close to Hezbollah said the group escalated the conflict with the aim of increasing pressure on Israel after it launched an attack on Rafah in the Gaza Strip in May. The use of anti-aircraft weapons against Israeli fighter jets on June 6 was an attempt to challenge Israel's air superiority. Hezbollah attacked Israeli fighter jets four times last week, claiming to "force Israel to leave Lebanese airspace".

Seth G. Jones, senior vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (USA), commented that Hezbollah is demonstrating its capabilities to increase the level of deterrence for a conventional war. "The question is what kind of anti-aircraft weapons Hezbollah has and whether this force has received anything more from Iran and Syria. I think any serious signs will cause Israel to respond strongly," Mr. Jones said. Israel has also declared Hezbollah responsible for the increase in violence and vowed to restore security in the border area.

Israeli firefighters work to control a fire after a rocket attack from Lebanon. Photo: REUTERS

Unpredictable arsenal

According to Reuters, since the fighting broke out on October 8, 2023, about 300 Hezbollah fighters and 80 civilians in Lebanon have been killed. On the Israeli side, the numbers are 18 and 10, respectively. Tens of thousands of people in the border areas of the two countries have had to leave their homes. Before this conflict broke out, the two sides had a month-long war in 2006. Since then, Hezbollah's arsenal has grown dramatically.

According to Hezbollah's al-Manar TV channel, this force shot down 5 Israeli drones, used drones to attack Israeli targets as well as used sophisticated guided missiles to record the attack. On June 8, Hezbollah also used the Iranian-made Falaq 2 rocket for the first time. This rocket is capable of carrying a larger warhead than the previous generation, Falaq 1. Hezbollah Deputy Leader Naim Qassem once declared that Hezbollah does not seek war, but is ready to fight if forced to do so. According to Mr. Qassem, what this force has used since the beginning of the conflict with Israel is only a very small part of Hezbollah's arsenal.

Hezbollah says any diplomatic agreement can only begin when Israel stops its offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israel, meanwhile, has agreed to a diplomatic solution to restore security on its border with Lebanon, but is also preparing for an attack.

MINH CHAU synthesis

Source: https://www.sggp.org.vn/nguy-co-leo-thang-cuoc-chien-toan-dien-giua-hezbollah-va-israel-post744685.html