Credit and public investment create momentum for economic growth to break through at the end of the year

Vietnam's economy is on track for a strong and sustainable recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025. Photo: Hai Nguyen

Accelerating growth and monetary easing

In the first nine months of the year, Vietnam's economy has shown impressive resilience, overcoming initial concerns about the impact of tariffs and the global trade war.

The fourth quarter 2025 macroeconomic report of Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC) stated: "Economic growth in the third quarter closely follows the growth target despite new tariffs taking effect from August 1, 2025."

GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025 reached 8.23% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since 2007 (excluding the recovery period after COVID-19). In the first 9 months of the year, GDP reached 7.9%. This growth was driven by the resilience of the manufacturing and export sectors of foreign-invested enterprises (FDI), along with stable contributions from public investment and private consumption.

Notably, VDSC also noted a phase difference in export growth between the two sectors. While the export growth of the FDI sector has been continuously expanding (accumulated increase of 21.6% in the first 9 months), the domestic business sector has been growing more slowly (accumulated increase of only 3.7% in the first 9 months). This shows that the trade shift to avoid high tariffs from China is benefiting the exports of the FDI sector in Vietnam.

The most important foundation for strengthening economic growth momentum is the strong easing of monetary and credit policies.

VDSC pointed out: "Credit expanded strongly in 9M2025, increasing by 19.6% over the same period". This is a record credit growth rate in recent years. Meanwhile, KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) expects the credit growth rate of the whole system to reach 20% in 2025. Maintaining low interest rates (or only increasing slightly) until the end of the year creates favorable conditions for cash flow to continue circulating, supporting businesses to expand production and business, thereby promoting economic growth.

Unleash inner strength

In addition to abundant cash flow, the Government 's efforts to stimulate internal resources are creating clear economic driving forces in the fourth quarter. KBSV emphasizes two key macro themes: Public investment and Legal clearance.

Accordingly, public investment is identified as one of the three pillars promoting economic development. In the first 9 months of 2025, the disbursement of public investment capital reached 481.6 trillion VND, an increase of about 48.1% over the same period in 2024. However, VDSC also warned that the disbursement speed in the third quarter slowed down significantly compared to the second quarter. To achieve the target of disbursing 100% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister , the disbursement scale in the fourth quarter must accelerate dramatically, equivalent to 134 trillion VND/month. This creates an optimistic outlook for the Construction Materials (steel, cement, stone) and Infrastructure Construction sectors, helping to stimulate aggregate demand.

In addition, many policy bottlenecks, especially in the real estate sector, are being actively resolved by the Government. Draft laws amending and supplementing the Land Law and specific resolutions have been issued to free up resources and promote healthy growth for this important market.

KBSV assessed that these changes will speed up the implementation of new projects, helping businesses with experience and large clean land funds benefit, thereby creating recovery for the entire value chain of the construction, materials and banking industries.

The story of the Stock Market Upgrade being put on the watch list by FTSE Russell is also an important macro factor, estimated by KBSV to be able to attract billions of USD in foreign capital flows into Vietnam, strengthening the position of the economy on the global financial map.

With the above efforts and advantages, VDSC believes that the growth target of 8.0% in 2025 is feasible.

"However, the economy needs radical structural reforms to reach the 10% growth target next year," the analysis group said.

Be cautious about exchange rates and trade risks

VDSC pointed out that the biggest short-term risk for our country is exchange rate pressure. The Vietnamese Dong (VND) is one of the few currencies that will depreciate against the USD in 2025 (about 3%), while the DXY index (measuring the strength of the USD) will decrease.

To reduce the pressure, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) had to make technical interventions by selling foreign currency on a term basis to commercial banks with a total scale of about 2.9 billion USD. Although these securities companies believe that the most stressful period of exchange rates has passed, investors still need to closely monitor the SBV's management moves to ensure macroeconomic stability.

In the long term, the risk of US transitional tariffs is an uncertain factor for the manufacturing and export sector (FDI). Although KBSV has pushed this risk to 2026, the specific conditions for applying a 40% tariff on goods that do not achieve a high localization rate are unclear and need to be closely monitored by exporting enterprises.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/trust-and-investment-cong-tao-luc-day-tang-truong-kinh-te-but-pha-cuoi-nam-3380153.html