Is the downtrend happening?

The domestic coffee market is showing positive signs as today's coffee price (October 2, 2024) increased slightly by VND 100/kg, ranging from VND 121,000 - 122,100/kg. This price reflects the stability of domestic consumption demand, and also shows the expectation of a bumper harvest season ahead.

In the Central Highlands provinces, the average purchase price fluctuated between 121,000 and 122,000 VND/kg, with the highest price recorded in Dak Lak province at 122,100 VND/kg. The small price difference between provinces could be due to differences in coffee quality, transportation costs and local consumption demand.

However, to accurately predict tomorrow's coffee price (October 3, 2024), we need to consider additional factors affecting the international coffee market, which determine domestic coffee prices.

It is forecasted that domestic coffee prices tomorrow (October 3, 2024) may increase slightly compared to today (October 2).

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), global coffee exports reached 10.92 million bags in August, up 6.5% compared to the same period last year. This figure shows that the demand for coffee in the international market remains high. Global Arabica coffee exports also grew strongly in the 12 months ending August 2024, reaching a total of 82.22 million bags compared to 74.34 million bags a year ago.

The strong growth in coffee exports could be a driving force behind the rise in coffee prices. However, it should be noted that global coffee production is also expected to increase in the next crop year.

The Costa Rican National Coffee Institute (ICAFE) estimates that coffee production for the October 2024 to September 2025 crop year will total 1.37 million bags, up about 5.5% from the current crop year. If the increase in production does materialize, it will put downward pressure on coffee prices.

Additionally, the volume of certified washed Arabica coffee on the New York exchange decreased yesterday, suggesting that supplies may be decreasing, a factor that could have a positive impact on coffee prices.

Combining all the above factors, it is forecasted that domestic coffee prices tomorrow (October 3, 2024) may increase slightly compared to today, fluctuating between 121,000 - 122,500 VND/kg.

However, coffee prices can change due to many different factors, for example: Coffee prices can be affected by fluctuations in the global financial market. Government policies on taxes, fees, and coffee production support can affect coffee prices. Bad weather can affect coffee productivity, leading to increased coffee prices.

Farmers and investors should closely monitor coffee prices to make appropriate decisions, and pay attention to factors that may affect coffee prices in the coming time.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-mai-3102024-xu-huong-giam-co-xay-ra-349848.html