Vietnam's rice exports in the face of moves from the Philippines: Stable and proactive response

(Chinhphu.vn) - This was the affirmation of delegates at the Conference "Promoting rice production, export and stabilizing the rice market" held on the afternoon of September 10, chaired by Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien.

Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien chaired the Conference - Photo: VGP/Vu Phong

According to Mr. Nguyen Anh Son, Director of the Import-Export Department, preliminary statistics from the Customs Department show that in the first 8 months of 2025, rice exports reached nearly 6.37 million tons with a value of more than 3.26 billion USD, up 3.7% in volume but down 15.4% in turnover compared to the same period in 2024 - the year of rice exports achieving the highest achievement ever. Regarding export markets, the Philippines continues to be the largest importer of Vietnam with nearly 2.9 million tons, accounting for 45.9%, up 4.2% over the same period.

Businesses proactively respond

At the conference, Mr. Tran Xuan Ha, Vice President of the Vietnam Food Association, said that in the context of the Philippine Government announcing a temporary suspension of rice imports from September 11 to October 30, 2025, Vietnam's rice exports to this market will be affected. However, this is only a short-term measure.

According to regulations, the Philippine Department of Agriculture will have to report to the President to review the policy. In the context of the country's still very large domestic rice consumption demand (estimated at 5 million tons/year), it is likely that the Philippines will return to importing at the end of October or in November-December to ensure supply during the holidays and Tet. In fact, some Vietnamese businesses have recorded signals of re-negotiation from Philippine customers.

According to Mr. Ha, in addition to the Philippines, other markets such as China, Africa, and Malaysia have all grown strongly. Rice exports to China and Africa have increased by over 150%, showing that there is still room for expansion.

Regarding solutions, the Association recommended that businesses stay calm, closely monitor developments from the Philippines, and continue to maintain exchanges and negotiations with customers to be ready when the market reopens.

At the same time, proactively expand alternative markets (Africa, China, Malaysia, etc.) to reduce dependence on a single market. Actively purchase and temporarily store rice from farmers to stabilize prices and ensure supply for export when the opportunity returns.

Sharing the same view, Ms. Bui Thanh Tam, Chairman of the Northern Food Corporation (Vinafood1), commented that in the current context, it can be predicted that the upcoming situation will not be too worrying for Vietnamese rice. In fact, in the past 10 years, we have experienced a period of heavy dependence on the Chinese market. When China sharply reduced imports, domestic enterprises encountered many difficulties. However, over time, we have shifted to other markets, reducing dependence and expanding export markets. The important thing is that the quality of Vietnamese rice has been affirmed, so if it cannot be sold in this market, it can still be sold in other markets.

"The Philippines is still a major rice import market for Vietnam. According to assessments, their demand will continue to be stable, and the temporary suspension of imports is only short-term. At the end of the year, when entering the festival and Christmas season, the possibility of the Philippines returning to importing Vietnamese rice is within reach. Therefore, businesses need to be prepared," said Ms. Tam.

Ms. Tam added that in the past 3 consecutive weeks, Vinafood 1 has continuously organized temporary purchases to support consumption for farmers and create a ready source of goods so that when the Philippines reopens, businesses can immediately sell. At the same time, it maintains good relationships with Philippine customers and continues to expand exports to other markets to take advantage of opportunities. "Domestic purchasing activities have not been interrupted, so farmers can still rest assured that they have a stable output for their rice," Ms. Tam affirmed.

Mr. Phung Van Thanh, Vietnam Trade Counselor in the Philippines, added that regarding the Philippines' rice demand, the country's import level remains stable. In the first six months of the year, the Philippines only produced 9.08 million tons of rice, while the target for the whole year of 2025 is 20.46 million tons. Thus, to ensure domestic demand, the Philippines still has to import 4.9-5.4 million tons of rice this year. This is a number that is difficult to change, so Vietnamese businesses do not need to worry too much.

Ms. Bui Thanh Tam, Chairman of the Northern Food Corporation (Vinafood 1), commented that in the current context, it can be predicted that the upcoming situation will not be too worrying for Vietnamese rice - Photo: VGP/Vu Phong

Agriculture sector ensures supply

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Tran Thanh Nam affirmed that the agricultural sector will ensure the production target of 43.5 million tons of rice in 2025. There are currently about 14.5 million tons that need to be harvested in the last four months of the year, and the plan has been carefully reviewed by region.

In particular, the Autumn-Winter crop in the Mekong Delta with about 700,000 hectares will produce more than 4 million tons of paddy, equivalent to 2 million tons of rice, harvested from November to December, right when the Philippines is likely to lift the import ban. This ensures that when the market reopens, Vietnam will have enough supply to meet the demand.

Deputy Minister Nam also said that the high-quality rice structure continues to be maintained at 80%, meeting diverse market needs. In addition, the Ministry is implementing the 1 million hectare high-quality, low-emission rice project in the Mekong Delta. To date, more than 320,000 hectares have been registered, with 11 pilot models showing a 5-10% increase in productivity and a 10-20% reduction in costs. This is a sustainable direction, helping farmers and businesses maintain profits even when rice prices fluctuate.

Don't be subjective.

Chairing the conference, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien said that the sudden suspension of rice imports by the Philippines - our country's largest rice import market - for two months, combined with Indonesia's previous suspension announcement, has made the rice export market more difficult in terms of output, and rice prices have somewhat decreased compared to the region.

However, the Minister affirmed that the suspension of imports by the Philippines, Indonesia, or even other traditional markets is usually only short-term. These countries themselves cannot be completely self-sufficient in food supply due to many natural, political, and social factors. Therefore, we have grounds to believe that after the suspension, they will return to import.

An important reason, according to the Minister, is that Vietnamese rice has become familiar to the taste of consumers in these markets. "Breaking up" with Vietnamese rice is not easy because the price is suitable for people's pocketbooks, while also meeting the quality and consumption habits.

"This is a factor that helps us have confidence in the market's recovery, especially at the end of the year, the holiday season and Christmas, when demand increases while domestic harvests in these countries decrease," the Minister said.

In addition, the world market is still showing many positive signs. Countries in Africa, West Asia and South Asia have been importing Vietnamese rice in large quantities and at competitive prices, creating more motivation and diversity for rice exports.

However, the Minister emphasized that we must not be subjective. Although there are many favorable factors, the rice market is very special and sensitive. If we are subjective, we may have to pay a high price. This is an important requirement that needs to be set out in the direction, management and implementation of solutions in the coming time.

Anh Tho

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/xuat-khau-gao-viet-nam-truoc-dong-thai-tu-philippines-on-dinh-va-chu-dong-ung-pho-102250910175508102.htm