Waiting for VN-Index to escape the accumulation trend

Stock Market Perspective Week 21-25/10: Waiting for VN-Index to escape the accumulation trend

In the next 1-2 weeks, VN-Index may escape the current narrowing range accumulation.

After a week of good recovery and increase in the price range of 1,265 points, VN-Index fluctuated within a narrow range during the week, facing selling pressure at the strong resistance of 1,300 points, recovering at the support zone around 1,275 points. At the end of the week, VN-Index decreased slightly by -0.23% compared to the previous week to 1,285.46 points, remaining in the price range of 1,280 points - 1,300 points.

Trading volume increased slightly compared to last week, below average, showing strong market differentiation in the period of receiving Q3/2024 business results.

SHS Securities Company experts believe that the short-term trend of VN-Index is entering the final stage in a narrow price channel below the strong resistance zone of 1,300 points that has lasted since the beginning of the year, above the support zone corresponding to the growth trend line connecting the lowest price zones from August-September 2024 to present.

In the next 1-2 weeks, VN-Index may escape the current narrowing accumulation range. In a positive scenario, VN-Index can maintain its short-term uptrend, and it can be expected to rise to the resistance of 1,300 points. However, this is a very strong resistance zone corresponding to the price peaks of June-August 2022 as well as from the beginning of the year. VN-Index can only overcome this strong resistance in the coming time when there is a consensus on growth among industry groups.

SHS experts recommend not to chase buying when VN-Index is heading towards the 1,300 point price zone. Investors can wait for the general market, VN-Index to escape the current short-term accumulation trend, with confirmation of consensus growth from many industry groups, before considering increasing new positions.

Investors should maintain a reasonable proportion, and disbursement positions should be carefully selected for good quality stocks, when the market is in the stage of receiving business results information. Investment targets are aimed at leading stocks with good fundamentals, good growth in Q2 business results, and positive growth prospects for Q3 business results.

The season of announcing business results shows that there is a differentiation between industry groups. This also causes the cash flow in the market to be differentiated when focusing on industry groups with positive information and high business growth results in the third quarter such as retail and livestock groups. On the contrary, the stocks of enterprises with declining profits will face adjustment pressure.

Agrisesco experts believe that the above trend will continue in the coming sessions when the third quarter financial report announcement season enters a climax with many large enterprises announcing one after another. The banking group is also expected to have positive business results, helping the stocks of this group continue to attract cash flow and become the driving force for the market to increase points. However, differentiation will occur between industry groups and enterprises because the low base factor of the same period is no longer the main story and choosing investment opportunities will become more difficult.

Notably, in the securities industry, the general market trend is sideways in the price channel of 1,200 - 1,300 points with low liquidity. From there, the securities group also has differentiation when businesses with profit growth in the third quarter, increased margin loan balance or capital increase stories will have more positive developments.

However, the securities group in general in the recent period has not performed more positively than the general market because the valuation level has been quite high and the general market has not improved in terms of points and liquidity. Agrisesco believes that the opportunity when investing in securities stocks will only be really clear if the market has a breakthrough in points out of the 1,300 point zone and liquidity has significantly improved. Investors should focus on businesses with growth in margin lending balance or have a story of capital increase in the coming period.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-21-2510-cho-doi-vn-index-thoat-xu-huong-tich-luy-d227902.html