What to expect from the US-China summit?

The meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping ahead of the APEC Summit will be the focus of attention in the coming days.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden met on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia in November 2022. (Source: Reuters)

On November 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in San Francisco, California, USA to attend the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit Week. However, another equally important event is awaiting him: the second bilateral meeting with host President Joe Biden on November 15 (local time) right before the APEC Summit.

Special location

This is also the first summit between the two leaders on US soil. The two sides chose Filoli, a secluded estate on the Northern California coast, 40 km south of San Francisco. Built in 1917 with Georgian and English Renaissance architectural styles, the 2.6 km2 private home has over time become part of the US National Trust for Historic Preservation.

According to Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo- Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, the above location is suitable for the Chinese side's request: "This is a quiet, isolated place where Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi can have a private exchange in a comfortable environment. More importantly, this location is not connected to the APEC Summit. Therefore, it creates the feeling that the two leaders are having a bilateral summit, separate from the chain of events."

Similarly, Jeremi Suri, professor of public relations and history at the University of Texas at Austin (USA), commented: "Such a location will allow them to reduce the attention from the media as well as factors that can trigger disagreements. If there are positive signals, they can start to trust each other and communicate better." According to him, this ideal scenario is similar to what happened in 1986, when then-US President Ronald Reagan met with Soviet Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev in Reykjavik, Finland. Here, the leaders of the two superpowers built a relatively close relationship.

“The trend is clear”

It is unclear whether Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will be able to do the same after their upcoming meeting. However, it is not difficult to see that this is the scenario that both sides want, given the current context.

As Dongshu Liu, a professor at the School of Public and International Affairs at the City University of Hong Kong (China), commented, China's desire to ease tensions with the US is part of a "clear trend" since September. He stated: "China is facing huge pressure and at the very least needs to reassure foreign investors that it is still willing to open up to the world." Chinese public opinion has become more positive about the US: in April 2022, more than 80% of people considered the US a "rival", in October 2023, this figure was just under 50%.

Meanwhile, after tensions in the beginning and middle of the year, the US has increased contact with China to “cool down”. Since the beginning of the year, senior officials from the two countries have met at least 10 times. Notably, Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi met three times with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and held talks twice with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. That is not to mention meetings between other ministerial-level officials such as US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo and her Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao, or between US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

In that context, the meeting between the two leaders is not only the “icing on the cake”, but can also contribute to opening a more peaceful period in bilateral relations. This is in line with Mr. Biden’s previous statement about “cooperation when possible, competition when necessary, confrontation when forced” or from Mr. Xi Jinping, “there are thousands of reasons for US-China relations to become better”.

Find common ground

Mr. Sullivan said that Mr. Joe Biden and Mr. Xi Jinping will discuss the most basic elements of the bilateral relationship, including enhancing communication and managing competition responsibly, not letting competition turn into conflict.

According to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning, the two sides will have in-depth discussions on strategic, overall, and orientational issues of the relationship, as well as major issues related to world peace and development.

A crowd welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in San Francisco, USA on November 14. (Source: The Chronicle)

A key topic of discussion between the two sides is certainly the economy. The US and China will be seriously damaged if bilateral trade, which is 760 billion USD (2022), continues to decline at the same rate of 14.5% as in the first half of this year. Mr. Sullivan affirmed that the two countries are "economically interdependent." At the end of September, the US and China agreed to establish an "economic task force" and a "financial task force", with regular and extraordinary meetings to discuss related issues.

This demonstrates the commitment of both countries to maintain comprehensive economic and trade cooperation, despite the current fierce competition in many different aspects.

Another “win” for both sides could be a deal on fentanyl. Beijing recently pledged to crack down on the production of precursors to the drug. In return, Washington lifted sanctions on Chinese police forensic institutes. This would help stem the flow of fentanyl in the United States and allow the Asian powerhouse to resume imports of chemicals used for forensic examination.

In addition, the US and Chinese leaders can discuss arms control. This is the content discussed by the delegations of the two countries early last week in Washington DC. The Biden administration wants to restore the communication line between the two countries' militaries. This connection was interrupted after the then US House Speaker, Ms. Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan (China) despite warnings from Beijing. Neither the US nor China will start a war that is beyond the control of both.

Climate change is also likely to be discussed at the meeting. On November 13, the world’s two largest emitters agreed to jointly tackle global warming by “attempting to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030.” This is not only a positive sign for bilateral cooperation and efforts by climate officials from both countries, but also creates momentum for the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), scheduled to take place in Dubai in two weeks.

However, on other hot issues, things are not so simple. Joe Biden may reaffirm the “One China” policy, while Xi Jinping continues to see the Taiwan issue as a “red line” for Beijing. Russia-China relations may emerge, but the two sides are unlikely to agree on this issue. In addition, despite Biden’s call, Xi is likely to maintain “balanced diplomacy” on the Israel-Hamas conflict.

According to Dennis Wilder, a former senior White House official on China, “significant differences on fundamental issues” more or less explain why Washington said the meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden would not produce a joint statement.

However, Ryan Hass, a China expert at the Brookings Institution and former adviser to US President Barack Obama on China and Taiwan, said that this does not prevent the two leaders from moving towards a “detente” atmosphere, not only in Filoli but also for bilateral relations in the future. After all, both powers still need each other now and in the future.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/ky-vong-gi-o-thuong-dinh-my-trung-quoc-250224.html