AI model helps predict major earthquakes months in advance

Early earthquake prediction will help minimize damage - Photo: SciTechDaily

The work was led by geophysicist and data scientist Társilo Girona of the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks (USA). Geologist Kyriaki Drymoni of Ludwig-Maximilians-University of Munich (Germany) is a co-author.

Their method for early earthquake detection, based on machine learning, was published in late August in the journal Nature Communications .

The authors wrote a computer algorithm to search data for unusual seismic activity. An algorithm is a set of computer instructions that teaches the program how to interpret data, learn from the data, and make informed predictions or decisions.

The study focused on two large earthquakes: the 2018 Anchorage, Alaska, magnitude 7.1 earthquake and the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, magnitude 7.1 earthquake.

The team found that before each earthquake, there was an unusually low level of seismic activity that lasted about three months in parts of south-central Alaska and southern California.

“Modern seismic networks generate huge datasets that, when properly analyzed, can provide valuable insights into the precursors of seismic events,” says Girona.

“Advances in machine learning and high-performance computing could play a transformative role, helping researchers identify meaningful patterns that could signal an impending earthquake,” he added.

The authors say the algorithm will be tested in near-real-time situations to identify and address potential challenges to earthquake prediction. They also add that the method should not be applied to new areas without training the algorithm with historical seismic data from that area.

“Accurate forecasting can save lives and minimize economic losses by providing early warning allowing timely evacuation and preparation,” Girona stressed.

“However, the inherent uncertainty in earthquake forecasting also raises significant ethical and practical questions. False alarms can lead to unnecessary panic, economic disruption and loss of public trust, while erroneous predictions can have catastrophic consequences,” he added.

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/mo-hinh-ai-giup-du-bao-dong-dat-lon-truoc-nhieu-thang-2024091312040489.htm