ADB raises Vietnam's GDP growth forecast to 6.7% this year

ADB raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic growth to 6.7% this year, thanks to positive export activities and FDI investment despite reciprocal tariffs from the US.

Lach Huyen Port, Hai Phong .

The above information was announced by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on September 30. ADB's GDP growth forecast this time increased by 0.4% compared to the level given by this bank two months ago.

According to Mr. Nguyen Ba Hung, an economist at the ADB, the forecast increase is based on many positive factors of the economy in the first months of the year. In particular, export activities and foreign investment continue to increase, despite the impact of US tariffs. "One of the positive signs is that Vietnam's tax rate is not much worse than that of its trading partners in the region, helping to promote its competitive advantage," Mr. Hung said.

Previously, UOB Bank also raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP this year to 7.5%, up 0.6% from the previous level. Meanwhile, the World Bank (WB) said that economic growth for the whole year could reach 6.6%, thanks to the strong growth (7.5%) in the first half of the year.

Vietnam targets GDP growth of 8.3-8.5% this year, creating momentum for double-digit growth in the next period.

By the end of August, Vietnam's export value increased by 14.8%, reaching about 306 billion USD. The US was the market with the strongest growth compared to the same period, at 26.4%. Other major markets also recorded growth, for example, China (9.2%), Japan (9%).

In addition, FDI inflows into Vietnam remained strong despite tariffs, with disbursements increasing 8.8% year-on-year to $15.4 billion. “This is the highest level for an eight-month period in the past five years,” said an ADB representative. He added that the increase in investment by existing foreign companies reflects their confidence in the market and opportunities in Vietnam.

Analyzing further, ADB experts said that the two FDI component indexes (disbursement and newly registered capital) increased and decreased in opposite directions. While foreign investors disbursed strongly, newly registered capital decreased by 8.1%. This reflects the "hesitancy" of new investors amid global trade instability.

In addition, ADB forecasts that growth will slow down in the remaining months of this year, as export activities begin to be affected by new reciprocal taxes, which took effect from the beginning of August. Currently, the US tax rate applied to Vietnam is 20%.

In addition, the strong export growth in the first eight months of the year was largely temporary, as businesses ramped up production to avoid new US tariffs. This caused export output to increase rapidly in a short period of time and is expected to decline in the final months of the year.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading of 50, a level that was flat after positive growth in July, showed that future orders had slowed in August. “This is a sign that orders are unlikely to increase in the coming period,” Mr. Hung said, adding that the economy will remain resilient in 2025-2026, thanks to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.

Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, ADB Country Director for Vietnam, commented that better coordination between effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policies will help avoid putting excessive pressure on monetary instruments, ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability.

In fact, credit growth in the first 8 months of the year was relatively high, at 18% compared to the target of 16% for the whole year. According to ADB experts, credit growth, in addition to creating momentum for economic growth, can also present macroeconomic risks. Because short-term credit growth is often reflected in investment channels such as gold and stocks.

PV (synthesis)

Source: https://baohaiphong.vn/adb-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-len-6-7-nam-nay-522198.html