Singaporean bank raises Vietnam's GDP growth forecast to 7.5%

Vietnam's GDP in the second quarter of 2025 increased strongly beyond all forecasts, showing the resilience of the economy, during a period of global economic and political instability.

Workers work in a plastic factory in Hai Phong in July 2025 - Photo: AFP

On September 17, in a report on Vietnam's economic outlook just released, the global economic and market research department of UOB Bank (Singapore) said that Vietnam's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased sharply by 7.96% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025 (compared to the adjusted 7.05% in the first quarter of 2025), surpassing the 6.85% forecast of Bloomberg news agency and 6.1% of UOB itself previously.

In the first 6 months of the year, growth reached 7.52% compared to the same period last year. This is the highest level in the first 6 months of the year since 2011.

According to UOB, the strong gain was driven by a 14% year-on-year increase in Vietnam’s export turnover, as market sentiment recovered as US reciprocal tariffs were reduced compared to Washington’s initial announcement.

UOB said the tariff uncertainty eased in the second half of 2025, as the US finalised its country-specific tariff rates ahead of the August 1 deadline. The tariff rate for Vietnam is set at 20%.

Export turnover in July 2025 increased by 17% over the same period, reaching a record of 42.3 billion USD, bringing the cumulative growth since the beginning of the year to nearly 16%. Despite pressure from tariffs, exports for the whole year can still increase by about 10% (compared to an increase of 14% in 2024).

"Despite risks and uncertainties from tariffs, Vietnam's economy has shown resilience and dynamism...

Following an impressive 7.5% growth in the first half of 2025 and expectations of support from increased public investment, we revise up our full-year GDP growth forecast to 7.5%,” UOB Bank said in the report.

However, Vietnam is also warned to be cautious about the risk of weakening demand from the US due to price pressure from taxes, while exports are growing strongly.

Vietnam's economy is resilient

In addition to the strong GDP growth, many other indicators also show the resilience of the Vietnamese economy in the context of global instability. Accordingly, the PMI index recovered to 52.4 in July, after three consecutive months below the threshold of 50, and industrial output increased by 9% compared to the same period.

Realized FDI inflows reached 13.6 billion USD as of July, higher than the 12.6 billion USD in the same period last year, indicating that the full-year FDI inflows could exceed the 20 billion USD mark.

Vietnam also announced a $48 billion infrastructure investment plan in mid-August, including 250 projects.

The State will finance 129 projects, focusing on urban and transport development with a total capital of 18 billion USD.

NGHI VU

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ngan-hang-singapore-nang-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-len-7-5-20250917181247006.htm