The battle of the incredibly lucky, the final chapter in a long and unpredictable story

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris' journey to becoming US presidential candidates in the 2024 election has many unexpected elements, which makes the election results even more unpredictable.

US presidential candidate Donald Trump touches protective glass during a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on November 3. (Source: Reuters)

No one can guess the word "unexpected"

The 2024 US presidential election is an election no one could have predicted.

Not long ago, Donald Trump was struggling after being impeached twice and voted out of the White House. Even some of his closest allies were looking forward to a future without the mercurial billionaire leading the Republican Party, especially after his failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. Two years ago, when Trump announced his reelection, the New York Post buried the article on page 26.

At the same time, Kamala Harris is struggling as President Joe Biden’s low-key running mate. Once considered a rising star in the Democratic Party, she has struggled with both her record and her portfolio, frustrating her supporters and delighting her critics, who have wondered whether Biden should replace her as his running mate when he seeks a second term.

Yet on Election Day, November 5, as hard as it may have seemed at first, American voters will choose either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris as the next President of the United States. This is the final chapter in one of the longest, most confusing, and unpredictable stories.

History has been and will be made. American voters have never elected a President who was convicted of a crime. Trump has survived not one but two assassination attempts.

Mr Biden dropped out in the middle of an election year and Ms Harris could become America’s first female president. The fundamentals of democracy in the world’s leading superpower will be tested like never since the Civil War.

That’s not to mention the backdrop of simultaneous conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, hacking by foreign governments , increasingly normalized disinformation, and the close involvement of the world’s richest man, Elon Musk. The only thing America can agree on is: how will this story end?

From a weak position to a strong position

The Republican Party may have finished with Mr. Trump after the Capitol Hill riot, the day Mr. Trump galvanized his supporters with false claims of voter fraud, directing them to march to Capitol Hill while Congress was ceremoniously certifying Mr. Biden’s election victory.

Mr. Trump began planning his re-election bid even as some Republican leaders hoped he would be overshadowed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, or former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump.

Since announcing his bid to run against Biden for the White House, Trump has faced four criminal charges, two of which relate to his failed attempt to overturn the 2021 election results. Another indictment relates to his refusal to return classified documents to the federal government after leaving office.

Mr. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all of the above charges, and none of the cases have been resolved.

But a fourth indictment in New York made Mr Trump the first president in US history to be convicted of a crime. A jury found him guilty on May 30 of falsifying business records to pay hush money to a porn star who claimed the two had an affair.

None of this has deterred Mr. Trump, who has largely ignored his primary rivals as he races toward the Republican presidential nomination. Candidate Donald Trump has capitalized on anger over soaring inflation and frustration over migrants crossing the southern border. He has also criticized Mr. Biden, who is only four years younger, as too old to lead the United States.

But after two failed assassination attempts, Mr Trump's path to the White House seems clearer than ever - perhaps even inevitable.

Presidential candidate Kamala Harris at Greater Emmanuel Church in Detroit, Michigan, on November 3. (Source: Reuters)

Can only say "lucky"

Vice President Harris was preparing to solve a puzzle with her granddaughters on the morning of July 21 when she received a phone call from Mr. Biden, in which the US leader announced his decision to end his re-election effort and endorse Ms. Harris as his replacement.

Immediately, Ms. Harris made dozens of phone calls during the day to organize support and gather enough support to secure the nomination within two days.

It was a stunning reversal of fortune. Ms. Harris had failed in her presidential bid four years earlier, dropping out before the first Democratic primary.

Mr. Biden revived Ms. Harris's political career by choosing her as his running mate, and she became the first woman, first person of color and first person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president of the United States.

But Ms. Harris’s struggles didn’t stop there. She fumbled questions on immigration, oversaw widespread staff changes in her office and retreated into the background rather than using her historic status as a platform.

All that began to change on June 24, 2022, when the US Supreme Court overturned the 1973 “Roe v Wade” decision that recognized a nationwide right to abortion. Ms. Harris became the White House’s leading advocate on an issue that has reshaped American politics.

She also proved to be more nimble. Shortly after returning from a weeklong trip to Africa, her team orchestrated a surprise trip to Nashville so Harris could show support for two Tennessee lawmakers who had been expelled for opposing gun control. When Biden dropped out, she was better positioned to seize the moment.

The election that reshaped America

While addressing campaign staff in Wilmington, Ms. Harris used a phrase that has become a mantra, chanted by supporters at rallies across the country.

“We are not going back,” she declared, a fitting contrast to Mr Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, which he has used since launching his first campaign more than eight years ago.

The two candidates have little in common, as demonstrated in their only live televised debate on September 10. In it, Ms. Harris promised to restore abortion rights and use tax cuts to support small businesses and families. She vowed to “be a president for all Americans.”

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump pledged to protect the American economy with tariffs and made false claims about migrants eating people's pets.

He called Ms. Harris "the worst vice president in the history of our country."

Many see Ms Harris as having the upper hand, but Mr Trump insists he won and has refused to debate a second time. The race remains very close.

Experts and pollsters have been trying to determine any changes in the two candidates' chances of winning. Small shifts in public opinion can change the outcome of an election.

It could take days to count enough votes to determine who won the election. Once the election results are clear, there could be another surprise in a campaign already full of surprises.

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